摘要:湿地是上海市城市生态系统的重要组成部分，但其面积在过去几十年间显著减少，影响了城市生态系统服务的供给。通过构建系统动力学模型模拟上海市湿地生态系统服务变化的过程与未来情景。研究表明：（1）该模型有效且具有实际仿真的可操作性，并可根据政策要求设定参数，对上海市湿地生态系统服务价值的变化进行模拟与预测，结果可为上海市制定湿地保护或生态规划政策提供可行性分析。（2）对4种不同"湿地面积增长率"的情景进行模拟，结果显示了未来经济以不同增速条件发展时湿地生态系统服务价值的变化：无论哪种情景，文化服务价值最高，占总价值的64%以上，且在研究时段内呈增长趋势；调节服务价值次之，呈增长趋势；供给服务价值最低，呈下降趋势。（3）到2025年，按照现行的政策，上海市湿地面积将减少至37.92×10⁴hm²，届时湿地生态系统服务价值为4711.56×10⁸元，占上海市国内生产总值的20%，人均1.95×10⁴元。



Abstract:Wetland plays an important role in urban ecosystem of Shanghai. However, the total area of wetland has decreased significantly over the past few decades, which has affected the supply of urban ecosystem services in Shanghai. In this study, we simulated the changes and future scenarios of wetland ecosystem services in Shanghai with a self-established system dynamics model. The results show that (1) the model is effective and practical to meet our simulation purpose. Moreover, the model parameters can be modified to simulating scenarios of wetland ecosystem service change in Shanghai under multiple policy conditions, which are useful for supporting wetland conservation and ecological planning in Shanghai; (2) four simulation scenarios based on different "growth rate of wetland area" can indicate wetland ecosystem services of Shanghai with different rates of economy development. For all the simulation scenarios, cultural service value of wetland accounts for the largest percentage (64%) and an increasing trend during the study period can be observed, followed by the regulating service value with an increasing trend as well. Among all of the ecosystem service values, supply service value is the smallest, and it is with a downward trend; (3) in 2025, with the current policy, the wetland area of Shanghai will decrease to 37.92×10⁴ hm². The total value of wetland ecosystem services will be 4711.56×10⁸ yuan, which accounts for 20% GDP of Shanghai, i.e., 1.95×10⁴ yuan per capita.





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