摘要:受全球气候变化的影响，气候因素与害鼠种群变化之间的关系成为害鼠防治研究中的热点问题。以西安市长安区周边分布的黑线姬鼠为研究对象，通过标志重捕法进行种群动态监测，掌握其种群数量的动态变化规律，并结合非线性的统计方法广义可加模型，对该地区2015-2018年黑线姬鼠种群密度和气候因素数据进行分析，探讨该鼠种群变化与气候因素之间的关系。结果表明，该地区黑线姬鼠种群数量总体显现为下降趋势。黑线姬鼠种群密度存在显著的正向自我调节效应（F_1.00，5.77=27.062，P<0.01），且与上一月种群密度存在线性的正相关。当月平均温度与该鼠种群密度之间存在显著的非线性效应（F_1.90，5.77=4.696，P<0.05），两者之间显现为钟型关系，当温度<21℃时，两者之间显现为正相关，黑线姬鼠种群密度随温度的升高而升高，反之显现为负相关。当月累计降雨量与其种群密度之间也存在显著的非线性效应（F_1.87，5.77=3.879，P<0.05），同样，两者之间也显现为钟型关系，当降雨量>90 mm时，两者之间显现为负相关，种群密度随降雨量的增加而降低，反之显现为正相关。因此，温度和降雨对黑线姬鼠种群变化具有调节作用，低温干旱和高温多雨均不适合该鼠的繁殖与生长。



Abstract:Global climate change affects the relationship between climate factors and rodent population dynamics, which is becoming a hot issue in rodent control research. Population dynamics of Apodemus agrarius in Chang An District, Xi'an, were monitored using the live capture method to elucidate the patterns of change in rodent population dynamics. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between the rodent population density and climate factors in the respective region from 2015 to 2018. The results showed that the total number of Apodemus agrarius population showed a trend of decline. The model results indicated that Apodemus agrarius population density further presented a statistically-significant positive self-regulation effect (F_{1.00, 5.77}=27.062, P<0.01). The rodent density of each month was mainly affected by that of the preceding month. The monthly average temperature affected rodent density, showing a clear bell-shape (F_{1.90, 5.77}=4.696, P<0.05), and positive and negative association at temperatures below and above 21 ℃, respectively. The monthly total precipitation also affected the rodent density, showing a clear bell-shape (F_{1.87, 5.77}=3.879, P<0.05), and negative and positive association with rodent density at precipitation levels above and below 90 mm, respectively. Therefore, temperature and precipitation influenced rodent population dynamics. Low temperature and drought or high temperature and abundant rainfall conditions were not suitable for rodent reproduction and growth.





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