摘要:经济效益最大化与环境影响最小化是绿色旅游与可持续发展的内在诉求。本文立足于生态效率模型，创新性地提出旅游业生态福利指数，据此分析1995-2017年常州市旅游业生态福利变化趋势及驱动效应，旨在为评价旅游产业绿色可持续发展能力提供新视角。研究发现：（1）1995年来常州市生态足迹呈现先增长后下降趋势，但旅游业各部门生态足迹均不断增长，游客人均资源消耗约为本地居民人均资源消耗的2.81-9.37倍，面临艰巨的节能减排压力。（2）1995年来常州市本底生态效率与旅游生态效率逐年提升，分别增加了37033元/hm²和44226元/hm²；同等资源消耗下，旅游业平均每单位产出高14409元/hm²，但游客年均消耗的自然资源却为本地居民的5.78倍。（3）1995-2007年间常州市旅游生态福利升降波动频繁，2007年来呈以直线式地骤降，受规模效益影响，旅游业的绿色生态福利和高效性不断弱化，为全市的资源节约量下降了10.7倍。（4）迪氏对数指标分解法（Logarithmic Mean Disivia Index，LMDI）揭示规模效应、经济效应对旅游福利水平变化起到显著地负向驱动效应，效率效应、技术效应起到正向拉动作用。未来，常州市旅游业应以绿色发展为导向，走出"无烟产业"误区，转变经济增长模式，大力倡导节能减排工作，走资源利用精细化、可持续发展道路，最大限度提升旅游业福利效应。



Abstract:The maximization of economic benefit and the minimization of environmental impact have always been the ideal conditions for the sustainable development of tourism. Based on the ecological efficiency model, we innovatively presents a tourism ecological welfare index to analyze the changing trends in and the driving effect of tourism ecological welfare in Changzhou City, China from 1995 to 2017.This study aims to provide new research ideas for the assessment of the industry's green and sustainable development ability. The findings are as follows. (1) The ecological footprint of Changzhou City first increase and then decrease from 1995 to 2017. The preliminary results have been achieved in energy conservation and emissions reduction. The ecological footprint of all sectors of the tourism industry is constantly growing due to the task of energy conservation and emissions reduction in the future. The per capita resource consumption of tourists is 2.81-9.37 times higher than that of the local residents. (2) The background and tourism ecological efficiency are being increasingly optimized year by year with an increase of 37033 yuan per hm² and 44226 yuan per hm², respectively. Under the same resource consumption, the economic value of tourism is higher with 14409 yuan per hm². While the average annual consumption per tourist is 5.78 times that of the local residents. The development of tourism shows a pattern of "high efficiency and high consumption". (3) The level of tourism ecological welfare fluctuated frequently before 2007 but plummeted in a straight line after 2007. Affected by economies of scale, the green ecological welfare and efficiency of the tourism industry continued to weaken with the city's resource conservation decreased by 10.7 times. (4) The decomposition method of Logarithmic Mean Disivia Index (LMDI) reveals that the scale and economic effects have a significantly negative driving effect on the change in tourism welfare level, while the efficiency and technology effects have a significantly positive effect. In the future, the tourism industry should change its economic growth model and vigorously advocate energy conservation and emissions reduction, following the path of refined resource utilization and sustainable development to maximize the welfare effect of tourism.





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