摘要:通过梳理国内外文献，挖掘脆弱性本质，提出普遍适用于生态系统脆弱性的PIR理论框架，并从人-环境耦合角度构建演化模型探究石化基地生态环境系统脆弱性演化机理。研究发现：生态系统脆弱性来源于压力扰动，体现在暴露性与敏感性的联合效应，而最终取决于弹性应对影响的状态。石化基地是一个多层次闭环系统，在压力影响下，暴露性、敏感性及弹性彼此间的双重导向作用决定着脆弱性的演化进程；内外部人文与环境因素变化是脆弱性的潜在驱动力，而压力源增多、暴露比例扩大、敏感性上升、弹性退化以及缺乏环境治理能力是加剧脆弱性的具体表征。以欠发达地区连云港石化基地为例，模拟其系统脆弱性演化过程，并从压力、暴露性、敏感性、自我恢复能力和人工修复能力方面构建评价指标体系。结论与建议不仅对石化基地所在欠发达地区的可持续发展具有启示意义，还为其生态环境系统脆弱性的进一步评价提供理论依据。



Abstract:Based on reviewing the previous literature and excavating the essence of vulnerability, this paper proposed a theoretical framework that is generally applicable to ecosystem vulnerability, and then the evolution model was constructed from the perspective of the coupling between human and environment to explore the evolution mechanism of eco-environmental system vulnerability in petrochemical bases. The study finds that ecosystem vulnerability is derived from pressure disturbance. It is reflected in the combined effects of exposure and sensitivity, and ultimately depends on the state that resilience copes with impact. As a multi-level closed-loop system, petrochemical base is disturbed by various pressures, and the interactions among exposure, sensitivity and resilience determine the evolution of system vulnerability. Internal and external human and environmental factors are potential drivers of vulnerability, and the increase in pressure sources, exposure ratio and sensitivity, the degradation of resilience and lack of environmental governance capacity are concrete features that exacerbate vulnerability. Finally, taking Lianyungang petrochemical base as an example, the evolution process of system vulnerability is simulated, and the evaluation index system is built from the aspects of pressure, exposure, sensitivity, self-recovery and artificial repair capacity. The conclusions and suggestions in this paper not only have implications significance for the sustainable development of underdeveloped areas where the petrochemical base is located, but also provide theoretical basis for the further evaluation of the eco-environmental system vulnerability.





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