摘要:探究中国北方高纬度森林覆盖区植被演变受到气候因子变化乃至突变的影响，选用MODIS-NDVI数据与TM/ETM+数据，结合62年的气象观测数据，运用像元二分法模型、累计距平分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验与相关性分析，探讨了乌伊岭国家级自然保护区1975-2016年气候变化及其突变对植被覆盖的演化规律，并对不同气候因子与植被覆盖类型的空间变化进行相关性分析。结果表明：（1）乌伊岭保护区气候变化呈现暖干化发展的趋势。年均气温上升（0.557℃/10a），年均最低气温与冬季增温幅度最快，秋季最慢。降水量年际变化较小（-14.052 mm/10a），季节性变化明显。经突变性检验，1980-1995年是气候增温减湿的突变时期。（2）研究区植被生长季的NDVI为0.673，有植被覆盖的区域占87.69%，其中高等植被覆盖区所占比最大。（3）气候突变时期，生长季NDVI显著下降，植被退化严重。低植被覆盖区无显著变化，而高植被覆盖区开始逐渐退化为中等与中低等植被覆盖区。在空间上植被覆盖的退化状况主要由中心山地沿四周低山丘陵区累年逐渐降低。不同植被覆盖区域下降的幅度：混交林 > 草地 > 针叶林 > 耕地 > 湿地。（4）乌伊岭保护区年均最大NDVI与年均气温和年均降水量的相关系数分别为0.261、0.068，其中呈正相关区域占总面积56.67%和42.79%，在分布趋势上两者都表现出明显的空间差异性。而气温因子影响植被覆盖的空间范围与能力更强，空间相关性更高，也是影响植被退化的主导因素。



Abstract:To explore the influence of climatice factor changes and even mutations on vegetation evolution in high-latitude forest cover areas in northern China,we used MODIS-NDVI data and TM/ETM+ data, combined with a 62-year meteorological observation dataset, We analyzed these data using a pixel dichotomous model, cumulative anomaly analysis, a Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, sliding t-test, and correlation analysis. We discussed the evolution of climate change and its mutations on vegetation cover in the Wuyi Mountains National Nature Reserve from 1975 to 2016, as well as different climatic factors and vegetation cover types. The spatial variation was correlated. The results showed that:(1) Climate change in the Wuyi Mountains protected area exhibited a trend of warm and dry development. The annual average temperature increased (0.557℃/10a), the annual average minimum temperature and winter temperature increased fastest, whereas the autumn increase was the slowest. The annual variation in precipitation was small (-14.052mm/10a); however, the seasonal variation was obvious. Through the mutation test, 1980-1995 was a period of sudden change in climate warming and dehumidification. (2) The NDVI of the vegetation growing season in the study area was 0.673, and the area covered by vegetation accounted for 87.69%, of which the highest vegetation coverage area accounted for the largest proportion. (3) During the abrupt climate change period, NDVI decreased significantly during the growing season, and vegetation degradation was severe. There was no significant change in the low vegetation coverage area, and the high vegetation coverage area began to gradually degenerate into medium and low-level vegetation coverage areas. The degradation of vegetation cover in space was mainly reduced in the central mountainous areas along the low hills and surrounding areas. The extent of decline in different vegetation coverage areas was as follows:mixed forest > grassland > coniferous forest > cultivated land > wetland. (4) The correlation coefficient between annual average maximum NDVI and annual average temperature and annual average precipitation in the Wuyi Mountains protected area was 0.261 and 0.068, respectively, and the positive correlation area accounted for 56.67% and 42.79% of the total area, respectively. Significant spatial differences were observed. The temperature factor affecteds the spatial extent and capacity of vegetation coverage, and had a higher spatial correlation, which was also the dominant factor affecting vegetation degradation.





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