摘要:明确区域尺度上外来入侵种的潜在分布格局及其对气候变化的响应对入侵种的预防和控制具有重要意义。以外来入侵植物刺苍耳（Xanthium spinosum L.）为研究对象，以其扩散蔓延的新疆地区为研究区域，结合中国国家气候中心开发的BCC-CSM1-1模式下的将来气候条件，应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术构建了未来不同气候变化情景（RCP4.5，8.5）下2050s和2070s的刺苍耳适宜生境预测模型，定量的展示了气候变化情景下刺苍耳在新疆的扩散趋势及其适宜生境的面积空间变化和分布区中心移动轨迹。结果表明：年降雨量、下层土壤有机碳含量、上层土壤pH值、年温度变化范围、降雨量的季节性变化和年平均温度是影响刺苍耳地理分布的主导环境因子；博州、塔城、阿勒泰西北部、哈密中部、巴州北部、克州中部、阿克苏北部、奎屯市、克拉玛依市、五家渠市、喀什市等地为高危入侵风险区；两种气候模式下刺苍耳的各级适生区面积和总适生面积均呈持续增加的变化趋势，且在RCP8.5情景（最高温室气体排放情景）下响应更为敏感；总体上看，刺苍耳在新疆的分布未达到饱和，呈现以塔城中部为中心，向天山北麓和塔克拉玛干北缘方向辐射状扩散，且两种气候变化情景下至2070s分布区中心均向伊犁州奎屯方向移动。



Abstract:Understanding the potential distribution patterns and responses to climate change of invasive plant species on a regional scale is of great significance for the prevention and control of invasive species. In the present study, the invasive plant species Xanthium spinosum L. (Bathurst burr) was studied in the Xinjiang region, where the species is widely distributed. Xinjiang was selected as the study region for constructing a BCC-CSM1-1 model developed by the China National Climate Center to simulate future climate conditions. A MaxEnt model and the ArcGIS spatial analyst tool were used to construct predictive models of suitable habitats for X. spinosum in the 2050s and 2070s under two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The ultimate aim was to quantitatively demonstrate the dispersal trends of X. spinosum in Xinjiang, variations in the area of suitable habitat, and the movement path of the center of distribution. The results indicated that annual precipitation, subsoil organic carbon content, topsoil pH, annual temperature range, seasonal variations in annual precipitation, and annual average temperature are dominant environmental factors that affect the geographical distribution of X. spinosum. Bortala, Tacheng, Northwest Altay, Central Hami, Northern Bayingol, Central Kizilsu, Northern Aksu, Kuytun City, Karamay City, Wujiaqu City, and Kashgar City were identified as areas with high invasion risk. Trends of a continuous increase in the area of suitable habitat at the respective levels and in the total area of suitable habitat for X. spinosum were predicted for both climate scenarios, with the responses being more sensitive in the RCP 8.5 scenario (high emissions). In general, the distribution of X. spinosum in Xinjiang has not reached saturation, with the species being radially dispersed towards the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountains and the northern margin of the Taklamakan Desert from the center of distribution in central Tacheng. The center of distribution is predicted to move towards Kuitun in Ili Prefecture by 2070 under both climate change scenarios.





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