Review of emission reduction research on major new energy generation
MOUChufu1,2,, WANGLimao1,2,, QUQiushi1,2, FANGYebing1,2,3, ZHANGHong4 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China3. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241003,China4. College of Geospatial Information,PLA Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450002,China 通讯作者:通讯作者:王礼茂 ,E-mail:lmwang@igsnrr.ac.cn 收稿日期:2017-09-7 修回日期:2017-11-20 网络出版日期:2017-12-31 版权声明:2017《资源科学》编辑部《资源科学》编辑部 基金资助:中华人民共和国科学技术部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800)国家自然科学基金项目(41171110) 作者简介: -->作者简介:牟初夫 ,男,湖北松滋人,博士生,从事能源经济与地缘政治研究。E-mail:mouchufu@163.com
关键词:新能源发电;替代减排;成本效益分析;综述 Abstract To achieve the 2030 carbon emissions peak target,it is important to replace fossil fuels with new energy sources. Using new energy generation to reduce carbon emissions is one of the most important forms. It is particularly important to carry out research in related fields. On the basis of collecting and summarizing research into new energy generation reducing carbon emissions in China and abroad,we combed the literature from the aspects of new energy resource potential assessment,emission replacement calculation,life cycle carbon emission calculation and cost-benefit analysis. We found that current studies have the following issues:(1)the calculating methods of new energy generation reducing carbon emissions have advantages and disadvantages;(2)carbon emission accounting of new energy industry itself lacks a uniform definition of calculating scope;(3)costs and benefits of new energy development also lack clear accounting standards. Finally,future research directions are discussed regarding scientific prediction of new energies’ technological progress rate,establishing benefit evaluation systems of new energy development and emission reduction,and describing the development path of new energy industry under emission reduction targets.
相比较于太阳能和风能资源潜力的研究,由于生物质能不属于商品能源,因此传统统计口径中通常不包括生物质能,一定程度上限制了农业生物质发电潜力方面的研究。代表性的研究包括刘刚等对中国2004年秸秆、畜粪、林木生物质、城市垃圾和废水的资源蕴藏潜力和实物蕴藏潜力进行的估算(表1)[27]。还有一些****从主要农作物秸秆和废弃物入手,结合主要农作物的种植面积、种植结构、单产以及秸秆的主要用途,对现有耕地主要农作物未来生物质能可开发利用潜力进行分析评价[28,29],代表性研究结果有刘志彬等得到的2011年中国主要农业生物质资源的最大发电潜力为0.68亿kW,净剩余资源发电潜力为0.12亿kW,其中玉米、稻谷和小麦三种大宗农作物秸秆及加工剩余物的发电潜力较大[30];朱开伟等对中国2050年低还田比、中还田比和高还田比三种情景下主要农作物最终可利用生物质能进行了预测,得到了1.86亿t、0.93亿t和0.15亿t煤的结果[31]。 Table 1 表1 表12004年中国主要生物质能资源汇总 Table 1Summary of major biomass resources in China in 2004
由于新能源发电过程中本身不排放CO2,因此一般将对其减排潜力的计算转化为计算其发电量进入电网后所避免的当地火电厂发出同等电能所产生的温室气体排放。这种计算方法涉及到CO2排放系数的问题。 CO2排放系数是指每一种能源燃烧或使用过程中单位能源所产生的碳排放数量,即某地(指一个国家范围内)混合电厂(使用多种燃料)每发1kW·h 电能,平均排放CO2的数量,单位是kgCO2 /(kW·h)。具体计算时,将发电时消耗各种燃料的数量与相应的燃料排放因子相乘,再除以当年各种燃料总发电量,就可得到CO2排放系数[32]。 国际上较为认可的排放系数包括IPCC与国际能源署(IEA-PVPS)、欧洲光伏技术讲坛(EPTP)和欧洲光伏工业协会(EPIA)在2006年5月联合发布的报告“2006年国家温室气体清单指南目录”中列出的缺省排放因子[33](表2)。这个系数适用范围较广,但不适用于比国家尺度更小的排放计算。 Table 2 表2 表2能源工业中固定源燃烧的碳排放系数 Table 2Carbon emission coefficient table of fixed source combustion in energy industry
能源种类
单位热值 含碳量 /(kg/GJ)
缺省CO2 排放因子 /(kg/GJ)
1kg燃料燃烧 产生的CO2排放 /kg
原油
20.08
73.30
3.65
汽油
18.90
70.00
3.70
柴油
20.20
74.10
3.67
焦炭
29.42
107.00
3.64
褐煤
28.07
101.00
3.60
无烟煤
27.34
98.30
3.60
天然气
15.32
56.10
3.66
注:1)单位热值含碳量来自《省级温室气体清单编制指南》[34],缺省CO2排放因子来自《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》[33]; 2)原始数据以J为单位,为与统计数据单位一致,将能量单位转化成ec,转化比例为:1kg ec热值(低位发热量)0.029 3 GJ[34]。 新窗口打开 2011年中国颁布了《省级温室气体清单编制指南》[34],将区域电网边界按目前的东北、华北、华东、华中、西北和南方电网划分,其平均排放因子可由上述电网内各省区市发电厂的化石燃料CO2排放量除以电网总供电量获得。这样一来CO2排放系数便细化到了省一级(表3)。 Table 3 表3 表32005年中国区域电网单位供电平均CO2排放 Table 3Average CO2 emissions of unit power supply in China's regional power grids in 2005
新能源开发利用可替代大量化石能源消耗、减少温室气体和污染物排放、显著增加新的就业岗位,对环境和社会发展起到重要且积极作用,其效益不能单纯用货币来衡量。 国际上一些机构在新能源效益评价方面做得较好。国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)组织了全球300余名科学家、200余名评审专家对世界能源系统转型开展了综合评估研究,并于2012年发布了具有重要影响力的研究报告《Global Energy Assess-ment-Toward a Sustainable Future》[5]。该报告对未来能源系统转型的路径、成本效益及其不确定性、政策选择等全面开展了分析。国际能源署每年的《能源技术展望》致力于能源转型技术研究,评估了各个能源技术领域的转型潜力并开展了成本效益分析[69]。 而在国内,减排效益的评价主要集中在新能源发展投入的经济性这一块。如方国昌等从非线性动力学入手,将新能源纳入节能减排演化系统,分析了新能源对能源强度和经济增长的影响。借助李雅普诺夫指数(Lyapunov Exponent,表示相空间相邻轨迹的平均指数发散率的数值特征)和分岔图分析了系统的动力学行为,得到了新能源约束下的节能减排吸引子。借助神经网络,得到了满足中国情况实际系统的参数。结果表明:依靠新能源自身发展或单纯加大对新能源的经济投入,并不能很好地控制能源强度。当经济投入过大时会对经济发展带来很大的阻碍作用,甚至给经济带来致命的影响。加大包括新能源在内的节能减排等的综合投入,可以很好地降低能源强度,当综合投入加大时,开始对经济的阻碍也大,但是随着系统的进一步发展,当新能源发展成熟时,这种投入对经济的促进作用也大[70]。陈立斌采用技术经济评价方法对水电、风电、太阳能光伏发电和核电减排二氧化碳的经济性进行分析。分析结果表明,单从减排二氧化碳的经济性看,水电最好,其次为核电,再次是风电和太阳能光伏;如果从减排效果看,则核电最强[71]。
近期国际油价一直在低位徘徊,美国和澳大利亚等国页岩气行业的蓬勃发展使得开发成本较高的新能源发电业面临更严峻的竞争态势,再加上近期美国又宣布单方面退出巴黎协定,全球气候变化治理的行动似乎已陷入困境。在此大环境下,推动新能源替代减排将在政策和经济上面临更严峻的挑战。对中国而言,作为世界上第一大排放国家和最大的发展中国家,如何制定新能源产业政策必然引起国际社会的广泛关注。而产业政策的执行需要从理论和实践上进一步研究论证该政策带来的影响。基于国内****对新能源替代减排相关研究的特点和局限性,今后可从以下几个方面进行相关研究方向的拓展: (1)在预测新能源发电量和减排量时,如何对新能源的技术进步率进行考量将是难以回避的重要问题。目前较为普遍的做法是采用“科技进步贡献率”这一指标来笼统地代替,但在涉及到具体行业生产函数计算时不一定适用。可以考虑通过技术管理部门访谈和电厂实地调研的形式建立技术发展数据库,在此基础上对新能源行业的技术进步贡献率进行科学地估算。 (2)整合新能源发展的环境效益、社会效益等因素,系统地建立新能源发展与减排的效益评估体系。目前的评估体系多为“经济效益+环境效益”的模式,对于产业拉动、就业促进、居民生活水平影响、区域竞争力提升等其他社会效益有所忽略,亟待进一步完善。这将是今后新能源项目成本效益评估中的重点。 (3)对新能源发电在电力市场的定价、补贴、并网模式等政策进行研究,对减排目标要求下的新能源产业发展路径进行描述。建立一些适合中国国情的复杂模型,进而分析电力市场改革形势下的可再生能源定价机制和政策措施,论证在未来不同减排目标及减排措施情景下,采取不同电价定价机制对国民经济造成的冲击,以避免承担和中国发展状况不适合的减排目标。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
[MaD,Chen WY.Analysis of China’s 2030 carbon emission peak level and peak path [J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,(S1):1-4.] [本文引用: 1]
[ChengL,XingL.Influence of nuclear power on the 15% non-fossil energy target for 2020 and power system [J]. Electric Power,2016,49(1):174-177.] [本文引用: 1]
[Wang HL,He XY,Zhang XL.A comparative analysis of the post-2020 CO2 emission reduction target set by China and the United States [J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(6):23-29.] [本文引用: 1]
[5]
Johansson TB,PatwardhanA,NakicenovicN,et al.Global Energy Assessment:Toward a Sustainable Future[M]. Cam-bridge:Cambridge University Press,2012. [本文引用: 2]
[6]
BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy2016 [EB/OL].(2016-06-23)[2017-10-28]. URL [本文引用: 1]
[GongQ,Yu HS,LinN,et al. Temporal-spatial distribution and regionalization of wind and solar energy resources in Liaoning Province [J]. Resources Science,2008,30(5):654-661.] [本文引用: 2]
[ZhuB,Li CH,Lu DR.Wind energy resource assessment of Jiuquan,Gansu Province [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology,2009,27(2):152-156.] [本文引用: 2]
[10]
JimenezB,DuranteF,LangeB,et al. Offshore wind resource assessment with WAsP and MM5:comparative study for the German Bight [J]. Wind Energy,2007,10(2):121-134. [本文引用: 1]
[Zhou RW,He XF,ZhuR.Application of MM5/CALMET model system in wind energy resource assessment [J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(12):2101-2113.] [本文引用: 1]
[LiK,He FN,Xi JC.An analysis of utilization potential distribution of wind power in Mainland China [J]. Resources Science,2010,32(9):1672-1678.] [本文引用: 1]
[ZhouY,Wu WX,HuY,et al. The temporal-spatial distribution and evaluation of potential solar energy resources in Northwest China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(10):1738-1749.] [本文引用: 1]
[Li YP,Du CX,Chen YQ,et al. An assessment of solar energy resources in Panzhihua [J]. Plateau & Mountain Meteorology Research,2009,29(1):44-50.] [本文引用: 1]
[19]
HammerA,HeinemannD,HoyerC,et al. Solar energy assess-ment using remote sensing technologies [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2003,86(3):423-432. [本文引用: 1]
[20]
StöklerS,SchillingsC,KraasB.Solar resource assessment study for Pakistan [J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,58:1184-1188. [本文引用: 1]
[Shen YB.Review of applications of satellite remote sensing data to solar energy resources assessment in China in recent 20 years [J]. Meteor-ological Monthly,2010,36(9):111-115.] [本文引用: 1]
[LiK,HeF.Analysis on Mainland China's solar energy distribution and potential to utilize solar energy as an alternative energy source [J]. Progress in Geography,2010,29(9):1049-1054.] [本文引用: 1]
[LiuG,ShenL.Quantitative appraisal of biomass energy and its geographical distribution in China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(1):9-19.] [本文引用: 2]
[28]
KaygusuzK,Türker MF.Biomass energy potential in Turkey [J]. Renewable Energy,2002,26(4):661-678. [本文引用: 1]
[29]
LauriP,HavlíkP,KindermannG,et al. Woody biomass energy potential in 2050 [J]. Energy Policy,2014,66(3):19-31. [本文引用: 1]
[Liu ZB,Ren AS,Gao CY,et al. Power generation potential assessment of agricultural biomass resources in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources & Regional Planning,2014,35(4):133-140.] [本文引用: 1]
[Zhu KW,LiuZ,Lv ZC,et al. The ecological development potential and time-space analysis of Chinese main agricultural crop biomass energy [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2015,48(21):4285-4301.] [本文引用: 1]
[Li HQ,Wang LM.China low carbon energy development potential and its contribution to accomplishing the national GHG mitigation target [J]. Quaternary Sciences,2010,30(3):473-480.] [本文引用: 1]
[Gong DR,ChenD,Yuan ZZ.Mathematics calculation model and application of CO2 emission [J]. Renewable Energy Resources,2013,31(9):1-4.] [本文引用: 2]
[38]
IEA.Compared Assessment of Selected Environmental Indicators of Photovoltaic Electricity in OECD Cities [EB/OL]. (2006-05-01)[2017-10-28].URL [本文引用: 1]
[39]
Klein SA,Theilacker JC.An algorithm for calculating monthly-average radiation on inclined surfaces [J]. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering,1981,103(1):29-33. [本文引用: 1]
[40]
Joseph VS,LucilleL,BruceH.Greenhouse gas emissions of electricity generation chains:assessing the difference [J]. IAEA Bulletin,2000,42(2):19-24. [本文引用: 1]
[Ma ZH.Compara-tive Evaluation of Greenhouse Gases Emission Coefficients of Several Major Energy Sources in China[D]. Beijing:China Institute of Atomic Energy,2002.] [本文引用: 1]
[Xie ZQ,Ma XQ,Huang ZH,et al. Life cycle assessment of photovoltaic electricity generation [J]. Environmental Pollution & Control,2013,35(12):106-110.] [本文引用: 1]
[44]
LouwenA,van Sark WG,Faaij AP,et al. Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development [J]. Nature Communi-cations,2016,doi:10.1038/ncomms13728. [本文引用: 1]
[45]
KeiichiroâA,PatrickC,KojiN,,et al.CO2 Emission from Solar Power Satellite through Its Life Cycle Comparison of Power Generation Systems Using Japanese Input-Output Tables [EB/OL].. CO2 Emission from Solar Power Satellite through Its Life Cycle Comparison of Power Generation Systems Using Japanese Input-Output Tables [EB/OL]. (2000-07-01)[2017-10-28]. http://www.iioa.org/con-ferences/13th/files/AsakuraCollinsNomuraHayami&Yoshioka_LifeCycleCO2.pdf. [本文引用: 1]
[46]
JungbluthN,BauerC,DonesR,et al. Life cycle assessment for emerging technologies:case studies for photovoltaic and wind power(11pp) [J]. International Journal of Life Cycle Assess-ment,2005,10(1):24-34. [本文引用: 1]
[Ji SY,GaoC,ChenB,et al. Carbon emission accounting for wind farm based on life cycle assessment [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(4):915-923.] [本文引用: 2]
[Guo MX,Cai WJ,WangC,et al. Quantifying CO2 emissions of one wind farm using life cycle assessment and uncertainty analysis [J]. China Environmental Science,2012,32(4):742-747.] [本文引用: 1]
[LinL,Zhao DQ,Wei GP,et al. Life cycle assessment of biomass direct combustion power generation system [J]. Water Conservancy & Electric Power Machinery,2006,28(12):18-23.] [本文引用: 1]
[WangW,ZhaoD,Yang HL,et al. Life cycle analysis on biomass gasification & power generation system and inquiry to assessment method [J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2005,26(6):752-759.] [本文引用: 1]
[Yang WH,Chu JF,WuZ,et al. Based on the LCA and CDM methodology for carbon emission reduction from MSW incineration for power generation processes [J]. Energy Conser-vation,2013,32(11):20-23.] [本文引用: 1]
[Jin YJ,Wu CL.Study on greenhouse gas emission reduction calculation of municipal solid waste incineration power generation [J]. Energy and En-vironment,2012,(6):52-54.] [本文引用: 1]
[National Development and Reform Commission.Notice on Adjusting the Benchmark Price of Photovoltaic Power Gener-ation and Onshore Wind Power Generation from the National Development and Reform Commission [EB/OL]. (2016-10-26)[2017-11-01]. URL [本文引用: 1]
[57]
Søren K.The Economics of Wind Energy:A Report by the European Wind Energy Association [EB/OL]. (2009-03-01)[2017-10-28]. URL [本文引用: 1]
[Ma CP,ShiD,Cong XN.The research on the generation cost of solar photo-voltaic electricity and a pathway to grid parity [J]. Modern Eco-nomic Science,2014,36(2):85-94.] [本文引用: 2]
[LiuZ,Zhang XL,He JK.Target decomposition model for renewable energy generation based on dynamic cost curves [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Society for Electrical Engineering,2012,32(11):9-15.] [本文引用: 1]
[ZhangW,Liu RF,LiuJ,et al. Probe into cost and trend forecast model of photovoltaic power generation based on multiple factors analysis [J]. Shaanxi Electric Power,2013,41(11):17-20.] [本文引用: 2]
[LanL,LiuQ,ChenZ,et al. Is the cost of renewable energy higher than traditional energy? Comparison of the cost between wind power and heat power in China based on LCOE [J]. West Forum,2013,23(3):66-72.] [本文引用: 1]
[Wang DL.Research on Key Factors Affect-ing the Cost of PV Power Generation in China[D]. Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2013.] [本文引用: 1]
[SuJ,Zhou LM,LiR.Cost-benefit analysis of distributed grid-connected photovoltaic power generation [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Society of Electrical Engineering,2013,33(34):50-56.] [本文引用: 1]
[Fang GC,Tian LX,FuM,et al. Impacts of new energy on energy intensity and economic growth [J]. System Engineering Theory & Practice,2013,33(11):2795-2803.] [本文引用: 1]
[Chen LB.Economic analysis of carbon dioxide emission reduction by using renewable and nuclear energy sources [J]. Sino-Global Energy,2016,21(11):30-34.] [本文引用: 1]
[Di XH,Nie ZR,Zuo TY.Life cycle emission inventories for the fuels consumed by thermal power in China [J]. China Environmental Science,2005,25(5):632-635.] [本文引用: 1]
[HuangJ,WangY,Wang YX,et al. Research on environmental benefits computing method of energy saving for photovoltaic system [J]. North China Electric Power,2014,(10):67-70.] [本文引用: 1]
[Cai GZ,WangY,Huang JW,et al. Analysis of calculation methods of environ-ment benefits from energy saving and emission reduction for wind power project [J]. Yangtze River,2010,41(15):23-26.] [本文引用: 1]