毕金孟^1,,
蒋长胜^2,,
1. 天津市地震局, 天津 300201
2. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081

基金项目: 中国地震局"监测、预测、科研"三结合课题（3JH-201901006），中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目"‘一带一路’自然灾害风险与综合减灾国际研究计划"（131551KYSB20160002）和中国地震局"2018年度震情跟踪定向工作任务"（2018010101）联合资助


详细信息

作者简介: 毕金孟, 男, 1989年生, 硕士、助理工程师, 主要从事地震预测研究.E-mail:jinmengbi@126.com

通讯作者: 蒋长胜, 男, 1979年生, 博士、研究员, 主要从事数字地震学和地震预测研究.E-mail:jiangcs@cea-igp.ac.cn

中图分类号: P315

收稿日期:2018-07-23
修回日期:2019-09-18
上线日期:2019-11-05

Distribution characteristics of earthquake sequence parameters in North China

BI JinMeng^1,,
JIANG ChangSheng^2,,
1. Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China
2. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China


More Information

Corresponding author: JIANG ChangSheng,E-mail:jiangcs@cea-igp.ac.cn

MSC: P315

--> Received Date: 23 July 2018
Revised Date: 18 September 2019
Available Online: 05 November 2019


摘要
摘要:为系统地考察华北地区地震序列参数的分布特征，以期构建适合区域地震活动特征的短期概率预测模型和评估地震危险性，本文利用当前较为前沿的ETAS模型和R-J模型，采用连续滑动、多时段拟合的方式，对华北地区1970年以来的16个地震序列进行了参数拟合，并对参数的整体情况、参数之间的关系、参数与大地热流之间的关系等特征进行了分析研究.研究结果表明，主震发生后的早期阶段，地震序列参数变化相对较为剧烈，误差也较大；两种地震预测模型的序列参数呈现出一种优势分布特征，主要参数的平均值分别为α_ETAS=1.7404±0.3420，p_ETAS=0.9769±0.1396，a_OML=-1.6638±0.5284，b_OML=0.8312±0.1658，p_OML=0.9053±0.1527，这与国际上其他区域的研究具有很强的一致性；大多数情况下，ETAS模型参数p_ETAS高于R-J模型参数p_OML，平均偏高0.0716；序列参数α_ETAS与大地热流值整体上呈现一种负相关关系，激发次级余震的能力与大地热流具有一定的相关性.地震序列参数的分布特征以及与大地热流之间的关系对地震序列类型的判断，及基于地震序列参数构建定量化的短期概率预测模型，均有重要的应用价值.
关键词: 地震序列/
ETAS模型/
R-J模型/
模型参数/
大地热流

Abstract:The purpose of this work is to systematically examine the distribution characteristics of earthquake sequence parameters in North China, which is helpful in establishing a short-term probability prediction model and assessing seismic hazard suitable for regional seismicity. Using currently advanced ETAS and R-J models and continuous sliding and multi-period fitting, the parameters for 16 earthquake sequences since 1970 in North China are fitted, and some parameters characteristics are analyzed such as the overall state of the parameters, the relationship between the parameters and the relationship between the parameters and the terrestrial heat flow. Results show intense changes and large errors in the early stage after the occurrence of the main shock. The sequence parameters of the two earthquake forecasting models exhibit a dominant distribution characteristic. The average values of the main parameters are α_ETAS=1.7404±0.3420, p_ETAS=0.9769±0.1396, a_OML=-1.6638±0.5284, b_OML=0.8312±0.1658, p_OML=0.9053±0.1527, which are highly consistent with those in other regions of the world. In most cases, the ETAS model parameter p_ETAS is higher than the R-J model parameter p_OML, with an average difference 0.0716. Sequence parameter α_ETAS and heat flow are of a negative correlation and the capability of stimulating secondary aftershocks have certain correlation with terrestrial heat flow. Understanding the distribution characteristics of earthquake sequence parameters and their relationship with the heat flow would help to better determining the type of earthquake sequence and constructing a quantitative short-term probability forecasting model based on earthquake sequence parameters.
Key words:Earthquake sequence/
Epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model/
Reasenberg-Jones model/
Model parameter/
Terrestrial heat flow



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