蒋长胜^1,,
毕金孟²,
王福昌³,
隗永刚¹,
龙锋⁴
1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081
2. 天津市地震局, 天津 300201
3. 防灾科技学院, 河北三河 065201
4. 四川省地震局, 成都 610041

基金项目: 中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目（131551KYSB20160002）资助


详细信息

作者简介: 蒋长胜, 男, 1979年生, 博士、研究员, 主要从事地震监测技术和地震预测理论研究.E-mall:jiangcs@cea-igp.ac.cn

中图分类号: P315

收稿日期:2018-02-27
修回日期:2018-03-21
上线日期:2018-05-05

Application of the Omi-R-J method for forecast of early aftershocks to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, M_S7.0 earthquake

JIANG ChangSheng^1,,
BI JinMeng²,
WANG FuChang³,
WEI YongGang¹,
LONG Feng⁴
1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China
3. Institute of Disaster Prevention, Hebei Sanhe 065201, China
4. Sichuan Earthquake Agency, Chengdu 610041, China


MSC: P315

--> Received Date: 27 February 2018
Revised Date: 21 March 2018
Available Online: 05 May 2018


摘要
摘要:在地震序列的早期阶段获得科学可靠的余震预测结果，始终是地震预测研究的前沿课题.针对新近发展的Omi-R-J方法的适用性问题，以及相比于传统的Reseanberg-Jones（R-J）模型在地震序列参数拟合、余震预测效能上的差异等问题，本文以2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0地震序列为例，利用多时间窗的连续滑动拟合、预测和检验，以及通过构建重采样随机地震序列目录的系统检验等方式，开展了应用研究和比较研究.结果表明：相比于R-J模型，Omi-R-J方法可在余震记录较不完整的地震序列早期阶段获得稳定、可靠的序列参数，p值、c值和b值的标准差相比于R-J模型参数明显减小.N-test方法检验结果表明，在R-J模型等传统方法无法获得预测结果的地震序列早期阶段，Omi-R-J方法预测结果可以较高的比例通过N-test检验，在后续时段的预测效果也明显优于R-J模型.利用随机地震序列目录的测试结果表明，余震记录完整性下降对Omi-R-J方法预测结果的影响相对较小，在全部时段的完整性下降的影响高于在部分时段的完整性下降.上述结果对进一步地将Omi-R-J方法应用在震后早期余震预测中具有一定科学借鉴意义.
关键词: 地震序列/
余震预测/
Omi-R-J方法/
R-J模型/
统计检验

Abstract:It is a focused issue to forecast early aftershocks. This paper discusses the applicability of the recently developed Omi-R-J method, and compares it with the traditional Reseanberg-Jones (RJ) model in parameters fitting and the effect of aftershock forecasting. Taking the Jiuzhaigou M_S7.0 earthquake sequence as an example, we use the sliding-type parameters fitting, forecasting, and statistical tests in multiple time windows, and systematic statistical tests of randomly resampled aftershock sequence to conduct the comparison. The results show that stable and reliable parameters of aftershock sequence can be obtained by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage with significant missing events. The standard deviations of the p-value, c-value, and b-value of the Omi-R-J method are significantly reduced compared with the R-J model. The N-test results show that we can obtain a satisfied forecast result by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage of the aftershock sequence for which the traditional methods such as the R-J model cannot be performed, and the forecasting effect is also better than the R-J model in the subsequent time period. The results of a systematic test by using the randomly resampled aftershock sequence show that the incomplete record of the aftershock sequence has a relatively small impact on the Omi-R-J method. Among them, the decrease in completeness during the whole period has a greater impact on the forecasting result than that in the partial period. These results have certain significance for further application of the Omi-R-J method to the forecast of early aftershocks.
Key words:Earthquake sequence/
Aftershock forecast/
Omi-R-J method/
R-J model/
Statistical test



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