刘佳^1,2,,
秦宁生^1,,,
李金健³,
周斌²,
罗玉²
1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610072
2. 四川省气候中心, 四川 成都 610072
3. 成都信息工程大学, 四川 成都 610225

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41772173）、四川省科技厅项目（批准号：2019YJ0620）和中国气象局气候变化专项项目（批准号：CCSF202034）共同资助


详细信息

作者简介: 刘佳, 女, 35岁, 高级工程师, 气候诊断与气候变化, E-mail: liujia851229@163.com

通讯作者: 秦宁生, E-mail: qinns0515@163.com

中图分类号: P461⁺.5

收稿日期:2021-03-08
修回日期:2021-07-22
刊出日期:2021-11-30

Characteristics of reconstructed runoff variation and its response to climate change in the source region of Yangtze River from 1374 to 2012

LIU Jia^1,2,,
QIN Ningsheng^1,,,
LI Jinjian³,
ZHOU Bin²,
LUO Yu²
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan
2. Sichuan Province Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan
3. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan


More Information

Corresponding author: QIN Ningsheng,E-mail:qinns0515@163.com

MSC: P461⁺.5

--> Received Date: 08 March 2021
Revised Date: 22 July 2021
Publish Date: 30 November 2021


摘要
摘要:依据长江源区1374~2012年重建径流，采用水文统计和交叉小波方法，分析了长江源区径流近600年变化趋势、突变、周期等特征，并进一步探讨了该区域径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明，径流总体呈现波动上升的变化特征，其中年平均径流量在20世纪以前以减少趋势为主，但2000年之后有增多趋势。年代际变率波动明显，丰水期、枯水期数量基本相同，但持续时间不等；突变现象集中在16世纪20年代~17世纪中期，20世纪50年代~90年代初期；源区径流存在多时间尺度的周期变化，以准16~32 a周期为主。径流对气候变化的响应十分明显。其与降水的相关性较高，且同相位变化主要集中在1710~1730年、1900~1930年的准8 a周期和1730~1800年、1810~1950年的准32 a周期上；气温与径流的相关性弱于降水量，在不同时期二者正负相关性存在差异。通过滑动相关分析经流与ENSO、PDO、NAO指数的关系，发现径流与NAO、PDO在部分时间窗口显著相关。3个环流指数与径流的显著相关关系主要集中在1700~1850年的16~32 a周期和1600~1800年的准64 a周期；结合气温、降水与环流指数相关关系，可推断ENSO、NAO和PDO指数通过影响气温、降水等气候要素，滞后影响径流的变化。
关键词: 长江源区/
径流重建/
气候变化/
差积曲线/
交叉小波

Abstract:Based on the reconstructed runoff from 1374 to 2012 in the source region of the Yangtze River(32°30'~35°50'N, 90°30'~97°10'E), the hydrological data of Zhimenda Hydrological Station(33.02°N, 97.23°E), NOAA Paleoclimatic data, the methods of Mann-Kendall method and crossover wavelet transform were used to analyze the trend, mutation, and periodic characteristics of the annual average runoff in the source region of Yangtze River, and the response of runoff to climate change in this region was further discussed. The result indicated that the annual runoff increased, before the 20th century, the trend was mainly decreasing, but it increased after 2000. Interdecadal variability fluctuated obviously. The number of wet season and dry season was basically the same, but the duration was different. Mutations were concentrated in the 1620s-mid~17th century and the 1950s~early 1990s. The runoff in the source region had periodic changes with multiple time scales, with quasi-16~32 a period as the main period. The annual runoff fluctuation showed good correspondence with the precipitation. The in-phase relations between the precipitation and river flow were found in almost all the time-frequency domains, good coherence could be found in the circle of the quasi-8 a between 1710 and 1730 and the quasi-32 years in 1730~1800, and 1810~1950. The correlation between temperature and runoff was weaker than precipitation, and the positive and negative correlation between them was different in different period. Combined with sliding correlation analysis, the relationship between runoff and ENSO, PDO, NAO index was found to be significantly correlated with NAO and PDO in some time windows. The influence of the three circulation indexes on runoff was mainly concentrated in the period of 16~32 a from 1700 to 1850 and the period of quasi-64 a from 1600 to 1800. Combined with the correlation between air temperature, precipitation and circulation index, it can be inferred that ENSO, NAO and PDO indexes lag affect the change of runoff by influencing climate factors such as air temperature and precipitation.
Key words:source region of Yangtze River/
runoff reconstruction/
climate change/
differential product curve/
cross wavelet



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