邢辰^1,,
孔瑜²,
刘飞^2,,,
周晓晔³
1. 南京信息工程大学, 大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044
2. 中山大学, 大气科学学院, 广东 珠海 519082
3. 安徽省气象台, 安徽 合肥 230031

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41975107）资助


详细信息

作者简介: 邢辰, 女, 25岁, 博士研究生, 气象学专业, E-mail: xingchen@nuist.edu.cn

通讯作者: 刘飞, E-mail: liufei26@mail.sysu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467;P468

收稿日期:2020-10-22
修回日期:2021-01-14
刊出日期:2021-03-30

Interdecadal variability of the El Ni?o-East Asian summer monsoon relationship over the past half century in reconstructions and simulations

XING Chen^1,,
KONG Yu²,
LIU Fei^2,,,
ZHOU Xiaoye³
1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu
2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, Guangdong
3. Anhui Meteorology Bureau, Hefei 230031, Anhui


More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Fei,E-mail:liufei26@mail.sysu.edu.cn

MSC: P467;P468

--> Received Date: 22 October 2020
Revised Date: 14 January 2021
Publish Date: 30 March 2021


摘要
摘要:在厄尔尼诺衰减年夏季，西北太平洋上通常会激发异常反气旋，并加强东亚夏季风。基于过去500年的重建数据，分析发现厄尔尼诺和东亚夏季风的关系并不稳定，而是存在年代际震荡。特别是在17世纪的小冰期，在厄尔尼诺衰减年的夏季，西北太平洋上空的环流表现为气旋异常。通过EOF分解发现，厄尔尼诺引起的东亚夏季风异常的年代际变化有两种主导模态：第一种是偶极子模态，表现为中南半岛和菲律宾群岛的负降水异常，以及中国东部降水增多；第二种是东亚地区表现为一致变化的均一模态。在厄尔尼诺衰减年的夏季，西北太平洋异常反气旋的年代际变化主要是由偶极子模态控制，且与有效太阳辐射呈正相关。在小冰期，太阳辐照度剧烈减少，从而导致衰减年的夏季西北太平洋出现气旋型异常。模式模拟可以重现重建资料得到的偶极子和均一模态，并且反气旋的年代际变化同样也是由偶极子模态引起的。从内部变率的视角来看，偶极子模态与类厄尔尼诺型的太平洋气候平均态有关。当关注于外部强迫的响应，尽管模式集合平均与有效太阳辐射表现为负相关，但是集合成员之间并不是完全一致的年代际变化，存在较大的方差。说明对于外强迫的响应，模式与重建资料仍存在一定的差异。
关键词: 东亚夏季风/
厄尔尼诺/
西北太平洋异常反气旋/
小冰期/
有效太阳辐射

Abstract:During the summer of El Ni?o decay years, anomalous anticyclones are usually generated in the western North Pacific Ocean and strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM). A normalized average of 10 reconstructed Ni?o index is used to find El Ni?o cases. Based on precipitation reconstructions over the East Asian for the past 500 years during 1470~1999 A.D., we find that this relationship between El Ni?o and East Asian summer winds does not occur steadily, but with interdecadal oscillations. In particular, during the summer of the Little Ice Age El Ni?o decay year in the 17th century, cyclonic anomalies occurred over the western North Pacific. Through EOF method, we find two dominant modes of interdecadal variability of El Ni?o-induced EASM anomaly: the first is a dipole mode, which exhibits negative precipitation anomalies over the Indochina Peninsula and the Philippine Islands, and increased precipitation over Eastern China; the second is a uniform mode with consistent variability over East Asia. During the summer of El Ni?o decay years, the interdecadal variability of the anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone is mainly controlled by the dipole mode and is positively correlated with the effective solar radiation. During the Little Ice Age, the solar irradiance decreases dramatically, which leads to cyclonic anomalies in the Western North Pacific during the summer of the decay year.
CESM Last Millennium Ensemble is used to understand the mechanisms and to compensate for the lack of global circulation and temperature data in the reconstruction. Through a similar EOF method after jointing time series from 10 ensembles into one series, model simulations can reproduce the dipole and uniform modes, and the interdecadal variability of anticyclones is also found be caused by the simulated dipole mode. From the perspective of internal variability, the dipole mode is associated with an El Ni?o-like Pacific sea surface temperature mean state, while the uniform mode is correlated with a combined global warming and Pacific meridional mode. When focusing on the response to external forcing, the model ensemble mean is negatively correlated with the effective solar radiation in contrast to the reconstructed data. Huge variance among ensemble members and inconsistence of external forced relation compared with reconstructions indicate problems on the simulated response to external forcing in CESM.
Key words:East Asian summer monsoon/
El Ni?o/
western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone/
Little Ice Age/
effective solar radiation



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