魏柱灯^1,2,,
方修琦²,
苏筠²
1. 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044
2. 北京师范大学地理科学学部, 北京 100875

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41701219）、江苏省高校哲学社会科学项目（批准号：2017SJB0161）、国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（批准号：2016YFA0600401）和南京信息工程大学科学技术史研究院开放课题（批准号：1061151801138）共同资助


详细信息

作者简介: 魏柱灯, 男, 33岁, 讲师, 过去气候变化及其影响与适应研究, E-mail:weizhudeng@126.com

中图分类号: P467;K903

收稿日期:2019-09-24
修回日期:2020-01-14
刊出日期:2020-09-30

Climate change, fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years

Wei Zhudeng^1,2,,
Fang Xiuqi²,
Su Yun²
1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu
2. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875


MSC: P467;K903

--> Received Date: 24 September 2019
Revised Date: 14 January 2020
Publish Date: 30 September 2020


摘要
摘要:从时间维的角度考察气候变化与人类社会之间的长期关系仍有待更多的量化实证研究。基于所重建的多条量化指标序列，文章分析了220 BC~1910 A.D.中国气候变化、财政平衡及朝代更迭之间的时间关系统计特征。结果发现，过去2000年中国财政平衡波动存在40~320 a的多个主导周期，其中80~100 a周期最为显著，财政周期在社会动荡、朝代更迭频繁时期趋于缩短，和平时期延长，并在1000~1200 A.D.前后开始有随时间变长趋势。财政平衡与温度变化在250~280 a的共振周期上呈较一致的正相关关系，与降水变化在60~80 a、80~100 a和160 a这3个共振周期存在显著正相关。在10~30 a尺度上，温度和降水变化对财政平衡波动具有协同效应，在30 a尺度上同时考虑温度、降水和财政平衡1阶滞后项为预测变量时，回归模型对财政波动的解释力最高可达27.4%，但受气候序列空间范围和分析时段的影响；降水比温度更适于解释中国历史财政旋回的波动。尽管在百年尺度上，气候冷暖期与王朝历时的长短及并存政权数量的多少没有十分一致的时间对应关系，但在年代到多年代尺度上，70%以上的王朝更迭期和并存政权数量增加期对应冷阶段或偏干阶段及财政匮乏期。
关键词: 气候变化/
财政平衡/
朝代更迭/
中国/
过去2000年

Abstract:Quantitatively investigating the relationship between climate change and human society merits more empirical exploration, from a deep time perspective. This paper takes the whole China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. as the study area and research period, aiming to analyze the long-term temporal patterns for the relationship among climate change, fiscal balance and dynastical cycles in China over the past 2000 years. In order to achieve this purpose, the paper used six key reconstructed proxies, including two temperature anomaly series of the whole China (1~1910 A.D.) and the Eastern China (210 BC~1910 A.D.), precipitation of Eastern China (101~1910 A.D.), fiscal grade sequence (220 BC~1910 A.D.), durations of each dynasty and the 10-year average number of coexisting regimes in historical China. Sequences comparison and multiple statistical tools such as FFT low-pass filter, wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis and regression model are also used to explore the periodic resonance and correlation between climate change and fiscal balance, the synergistic effect of temperature and precipitation change on fiscal balance, and the background of climate and fiscal balance during dynastical alternations. It is found that fluctuation of fiscal balance had multiple periodicities ranging from 40 years to 320 years in China during 220 BC~1910 A.D. The period of 80~100 years is the most statistically significant and basically distributed temporally throughout the study period. The fiscal cycle shortened in the period of social turbulence and frequent dynastic changes, and prolonged in the period of peace and stability. Throughout the past 2000 years, the length of the fiscal periodicity displayed a growing trend, with the transition period during 1000~1200 A.D. Moreover, fiscal balance was positively associated significantly with temperature at the predominant bands of 250~280 years, and with precipitation at the three bands of 60~80 years, 80~100 years and 160 years. On the scale of 10~30 years, the synergistic effect of temperature change and precipitation change on fiscal balance is significant. On the 30-year scale, when taking all of the temperature, precipitation and first-order lag of fiscal balance as predicting variables, the explanatory power of regression model can reach as high as 27.4%. However, it is related to the spatial range of climate sequences and analysis period. Compared with temperature change, precipitation is more suitable for explaining the historical fiscal balance cycle in China on the 10 to 30-year scale. Besides, it is noted that most of the fiscal sufficient periods corresponded to the prosperous periods, but the fiscal deficiency periods might both appear in the crisis/turbulent periods and the prosperous periods. Before the Ming and Qing Dynasties, most prosperous periods occurred in the centennial-scale warm period, whiles most turbulent periods occurred in the centennial-scale cold period. Although there was no consistent temporal correspondence among climatic warm/cold periods, duration of the dynasties and the number of coexisting regimes on the centennial scale over the past 2000 years, 70% dynastical alternations corresponded to cold stages or relatively dry stages and fiscal deficiency periods at the decadal to multidecade scale.
Key words:climate change/
fiscal balance/
dynastical cycle/
China/
past 2000 years



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