李庆1,,,
何仕松3,
刘原3
1.四川农业大学农学院 成都 611130
2.四川省农村经济综合信息中心 成都 610072
3.四川苍溪猕猴桃研究所 苍溪 628400
基金项目: 国家现代农业产业体系四川水果创新团队项目2013-2018
详细信息
作者简介:王茹琳, 主要研究方向为气候变化与植物、病虫害关系。E-mail:wrl_1986_1@163.com
通讯作者:李庆, 主要研究方向为病虫害生物防治。E-mail:liq8633@163.com
中图分类号:S601.9计量
文章访问数:1173
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被引次数:0
出版历程
收稿日期:2017-06-16
录用日期:2017-07-12
刊出日期:2018-01-01
Potential distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China and its predicted response to climate change
WANG Rulin1, 2,,LI Qing1,,,
HE Shisong3,
LIU Yuan3
1. College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
2. Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, China
3. Kiwifruit Institute of Cangxi County, Cangxi 628400, China
Funds: the Sichuan Fruit Innovation Team Project of Modern Agricultural Industry Technology System of China2013-2018
More Information
Corresponding author:Li Qing, E-mail:liq8633@163.com
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摘要
摘要:中华猕猴桃为中国特有果种，由于其独特的口感和较高的经济价值，近年来种植规模逐年扩大。在引种过程中，由于缺乏合理的布局规划和适生性分析，出现了品种单一化、易感病虫害等问题。近年来四川、陕西、贵州、重庆和湖北等猕猴桃主产省份相继开展了猕猴桃气候适宜性区划的研究，但目前的研究多未考虑未来气候变化对猕猴桃种植分布的影响，且伴随着气候变化的加剧，已有的研究结果已不能完全适应实际生产的需求。本文运用生态位模型软件MaxEnt，模拟和预测气候变化背景下大尺度范围中华猕猴桃适生区分布及其变化的可行性，以利于科学地优化产业结构、促进产业发展。基于当前数据和IPCC AR5提出的3种气候情景以及中华猕猴桃的分布信息，采用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS预测了中华猕猴桃的适生区及未来的变化趋势，用受试者工作特征曲线（receiver operating characteristic curve，ROC曲线）检测模型精度、刀切法（Jackknife test）筛选主导环境变量。结果表明，基于当前和未来情景构建的中华猕猴桃地理分布模型的AUC（area under curve）值均达到"极好"的标准，说明模型预测结果可用于本研究。当前气候条件下，中华猕猴桃的高适生区主要在四川、陕西、重庆、湖北、贵州、浙江、湖南、安徽、河南、江苏和甘肃等省份，面积达1.01×106 km2。中适生区则以高适生区为中心向外扩散，包括河南、湖北、安徽、江苏和山东等地，面积为6.79×105 km2。RCP2.6和RCP4.5排放情景下，中华猕猴桃高适生区的分布、面积及中心点位置都有所不同，面积均呈增加趋势；RCP8.5排放情景下，高适生区面积呈减少趋势。RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下，中华猕猴桃高适生区中心点均有向北移动趋势。MaxEnt模型对未来气候变化条件下中华猕猴桃适生区的准确模拟与预测具有潜在应用价值，对该果树的气候适宜性区划具有重要指导意义。
关键词:中华猕猴桃/
MaxEnt模型/
环境变量/
气候变化/
适生区分析/
典型浓度路径情景
Abstract:Kiwifruit (Actinidia spp.), belonged to Actinidiaceae, is a type of perennial deciduous woody liana and an important class of berry fruit. With rich sugar, protein, amino acids, vitamins and especially high vitamin C content, the kiwifruit is known as "the king of the fruit" and has a good market prospect. A. chinensis is a species endemic in China with a fast-expanding planting area due to its unique subtle flavor and high economic value. Optimization of planting scale and distribution of the crop has been the major concern for regional planning. The objective of this study was to test and determine the possibility of using the MaxEnt (the maximum entropy) model to simulate and predict future large-scale distribution of A. chinensis. Based on current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios suggested in the IPCC fifth report and current distribution sites of A. chinensis, we used the MaxEnt model in combination with ArcGIS to predict the potential geographic distribution and trend of change of A. chinensis in China. The dominant factors were chosen by using the Jackknife test and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the simulation. The results showed that high value of area under curve (AUC) denoted good results which significantly differed from random predictions. Based on the evaluation criterion, the accuracies of the predictions of A. chinensis potential distribution in the current and future periods were excellent. The predicted result of the MaxEnt model was imported into ArcGIS10.0 for further analysis and showed that under present climatic conditions, the total suitable area was 26.92% of the total land area in China. The potential distribution was highly consistent with the locations of specimen records and field surveys. The highly suitable areas were in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and Gansu Provinces. The areas of highly suitable habitat in the main producing provinces were analyzed statistically. The results showed that under the current conditions, the most suitable area for A. chinensis cultivation was 1.01×106 km2, accounting for 38.94% of the total suitable areas. The moderately suitable areas were in Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Shandong Provinces, with the area of 6.79×105 km2, accounting for 26.26% of the total suitable areas. Comparison of future suitable areas with current suitable areas showed that areas of high suitability increased under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, but decreased under scenario RCP8.5. Under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the mean center of highly suitable area of A. chinensis moved northward. The result showed that the MaxEnt model was highly reliable in determining not only the range of geographic distribution of A. chinensis, but also in identifying dominant environmental factors driving the geographic distribution. Whereas climate was a decisive factor in species distribution, change in distribution pattern of species was the most direct effect of climate change. The results provided a critical reference base for A. chinensis plantation pattern and countermeasures to cope with climate change in China.
Key words:Actinidia chinensis/
MaxEnt model/
Environmental variables/
Climate change/
Suitable area analysis/
Representative concentration pathway scenario
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图1当前气候情景中华猕猴桃MaxEnt模型的ROC曲线
Figure1.ROC curve of MaxEnt model for Actinidia chinensis under current scenario
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图2未来不同年代3种气候变化情景下中华猕猴桃MaxEnt模型的ROC曲线
Figure2.ROC curves of MaxEnt model for Actinidia chinensis under 3 climate change scenarios in the future decades
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图3基于MaxEnt模型预测的中华猕猴桃在中国的适生分析图
Figure3.Potential distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China based on MaxEnt model
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图4未来不同年代3种气候变化背景下中华猕猴桃潜在适生区的预测结果
Figure4.Predicted future suitable areas for Actinidia chinensis under 3 climate change scenarios in the future decades
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片
图5未来不同年代3种气候变化情景下中华猕猴桃高适生区中心点迁移轨迹
Figure5.Variations of mean centers of highly suitable areas under different 3 climate change scenarios in the future decades
下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片表1曲线下面积值(AUC值)取值范围及其与MaxEnt模型准确性的关系
Table1.Relationship between area under curve (AUC) and the accuracy of the MaxEnt model
| AUC取值范围 Range of AUC value | 评价标准 Evaluation criterion |
| 0.5≤AUC < 0.6 | 失败?Fail |
| 0.6≤AUC < 0.7 | 较差?Poor |
| 0.7≤AUC < 0.8 | 一般?Fair |
| 0.8≤AUC < 0.9 | 好?Good |
| 0.9≤AUC < 1.0 | 极好?Excellent |
下载: 导出CSV表2影响中华猕猴桃分布的22个环境变量及其代码和计量单位
Table2.Codes and units of environmental variables used for simulation of potential distribution of Actinidia chinensis
| 代码 Code | 变量名称 Environmental variable | 单位 Unit |
| Bio2 | 平均日较差?Mean diurnal temperature range | ℃ |
| Bio5 | 最暖月最高温度?Max temperature of the warmest month | ℃ |
| Bio6 | 最冷月最低温度?Min temperature of the coldest month | ℃ |
| Bio7 | 年均温变化范围?Annual temperature range | ℃ |
| Bio9 | 最干季度平均温度?Mean temperature of the driest quarter | ℃ |
| Bio11 | 最冷季度平均温度?Mean temperature of the coldest quarter | ℃ |
| Bio12 | 年降水量?Annual precipitation | mm |
| Bio14 | 最干月降水量?Precipitation of the driest month | mm |
| Prec5, 9, 12 | 5、9和12月平均雨量?Precipitation in May, September and December | mm |
| Tmax2, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12 | 2月、4月、9月、10月、11月和12月最高温度?Maximum temperature in February, April, September, October, November and December | ℃ |
| Tmin3, 4, 10, 11 | 3月、4月、10月和11月最低温度?Minimum temperature in March, April, October, and November | ℃ |
| Tmean5 | 5月平均温度?Mean temperature in May | ℃ |
下载: 导出CSV表3中华猕猴桃在当前情景(1950—2000年)及未来气候条件下的适生区面积预测
Table3.Predicted suitable areas for Actinidia chinensis under current and future climatic conditions
| 年代Decade | 气候情景Climate scenarios | 低适生区Lowly suitable area | 中适生区Moderately suitable area | 高适生区Highly suitable area | |||||
| 预测面积Predicted area (×104km2) | 占当前情景预测面积比例Proportion of current predicted area (%) | 预测面积Predicted area (×104km2) | 占当前情景预测面积比例Proportion of current predicted area (%) | 预测面积Predicted area (×104km2) | 占当前情景预测面积比例Proportion of current predicted area (%) | ||||
| 当前(1950-2000年) Current (1950-2000) | - | 89.91 | - | 67.86 | - | 100.62 | - | ||
| 21世纪30年代 2030s | RCP2.6 | 91.77 | 102.07 | 70.39 | 103.37 | 108.84 | 108.18 | ||
| RCP4.5 | 101.27 | 112.64 | 86.81 | 127.92 | 86.89 | 86.36 | |||
| RCP8.5 | 122.19 | 135.90 | 62.01 | 91.38 | 106.94 | 106.29 | |||
| 21世纪50年代 2050s | RCP2.6 | 102.34 | 113.83 | 66.93 | 98.62 | 108.43 | 107.77 | ||
| RCP4.5 | 93.77 | 104.29 | 59.29 | 87.37 | 116.97 | 116.25 | |||
| RCP8.5 | 112.79 | 125.44 | 65.02 | 95.82 | 110.06 | 109.39 | |||
| 21世纪70年代 2070s | RCP2.6 | 45.85 | - | 75.87 | 111.81 | 113.10 | 112.41 | ||
| RCP4.5 | 111.01 | 123.55 | 79.71 | 117.15 | 108.49 | 107.83 | |||
| RCP8.5 | 120.82 | 134.38 | 58.53 | 86.24 | 122.72 | 121.96 | |||
| 21世纪80年代 2080s | RCP2.6 | 89.82 | 99.91 | 81.41 | 119.96 | 108.28 | 107.62 | ||
| RCP4.5 | 80.19 | 89.19 | 68.21 | 100.52 | 148.29 | 148.37 | |||
| RCP8.5 | 100.49 | 111.77 | 80.21 | 118.19 | 109.38 | 108.70 | |||
下载: 导出CSV表4未来3种气候变化情景下中华猕猴桃高适生区中心点位移距离和方向
Table4.Shift distance and direction of mean center of highly suitable area of Actinidia chinensis under 3 climate change scenarios in the future
| 时期 Period | RCP2.6气候情景 SRES-RCP2.6 | RCP4.5气候情景 SRES-RCP4.5 | RCP8.5气候情景 SRES-RCP8.5 | ||||||||
| 位移 Displacement (km) | 方向 Direction | 角度 Angle (°) | 位移 Displacement (km) | 方向 Direction | 角度 Angle (°) | 位移 Displacement (km) | 方向 Direction | 角度 Angle (°) | |||
| 当前至2030s From current to 2030s | 108.84 | 东南 Southeast | 279.20 | 9.68 | 东南 Southeast | 290.23 | 106.56 | 东北 Northeast | 66.37 | ||
| 2030s至2050s From 2030s to 2050s | 58.65 | 西北 Northwest | 94.87 | 47.70 | 东南 Southeast | 344.09 | 73.01 | 西南 Southeast | 265.52 | ||
| 2050s至2070s From 2050s to 2070s | 60.54 | 东北 Northeast | 31.19 | 33.70 | 东北 Northeast | 32.51 | 88.50 | 西北 Northwest | 97.14 | ||
| 2070s至2080s From 2070s to 2080s | 62.73 | 东南 Southeast | 357.39 | 74.00 | 西北 Northwest | 132.39 | 92.80 | 东南 Southeast | 281.38 | ||
| 当前至2080s From current to 2080s | 82.39 | 东南 Southeast | 316.83 | 32.44 | 西北 Northwest | 153.71 | 40.82 | 东北 Northeast | 43.31 | ||
下载: 导出CSV表5气候变化情景下未来不同年代中国年平均气温与年降水量的变化
Table5.Changes in annual mean temperature and annual precipitation under different climate change scenarios in the future decades in China
| 气候变化情景 Climate change scenario | 年代 Decades | 年平均气温范围 Range of annual mean temperature (℃) | 年平均气温 Annual mean temperature (℃) | 年降水量范围 Range of annual precipitation (mm) | 年降水量 Annual precipitation (mm) |
| 当前?Current | 1950-2000 | -13.8~25.8 | 6.15 | 12~4 199 | 621.59 |
| RCP2.6气候情景 SRES-RCP2.6 | 2030s | -18.2~27.1 | 6.68 | 16~5 062 | 824.16 |
| 2050s | -17.7~27.3 | 6.94 | 18~5 149 | 857.32 | |
| 2070s | -17.6~27.4 | 6.89 | 22~5 155 | 849.40 | |
| 2080s | -17.9~27.3 | 6.79 | 22~5 101 | 845.79 | |
| RCP4.5气候情景 SRES-RCP4.5 | 2030s | -18.0~27.2 | 6.73 | 16~5 086 | 822.52 |
| 2050s | -17.1~27.6 | 7.28 | 19~5 201 | 849.65 | |
| 2070s | -16.6~27.8 | 7.74 | 22~5 155 | 858.04 | |
| 2080s | -16.4~27.9 | 7.69 | 21~5 143 | 859.39 | |
| RCP8.5气候情景 SRES-RCP8.5 | 2030s | -17.5~27.4 | 11.92 | 21~5 054 | 819.23 |
| 2050s | -16.4~27.9 | 11.65 | 21~5 149 | 858.42 | |
| 2070s | -14.4~29.0 | 11.49 | 27~5 261 | 2 024.12 | |
| 2080s | -13.4~29.4 | 11.99 | 29~5 286 | 2 075.86 |
下载: 导出CSV参考文献
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