摘要:针对海河流域东北冷涡降水样本，应用海河流域加密自动站降水资料及欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMCWF）降水预报资料，利用滑动相关分析方法建立重组预报序列，基于加密自动站24 h累积降水量及重组24 h降水预报序列的Gamma累积概率分布曲线，采用预报—实况概率匹配方法建立1～3日的短期订正模型并进行试报检验。结果表明：欧洲中心数值模式对于海河流域东北冷涡降水的预报较实况偏慢；概率匹配法主要通过订正降水量级来改善预报结果，订正后降水预报对于小雨、大雨、暴雨预报的TS（Threat Score）评分技巧均有提升，尤其对于大雨和暴雨及以上量级预报，订正后预报量级及预报落区大小均与实况更加接近，订正效果显著。东北冷涡降水对流性强，模式预报能力弱，而订正后预报能有效提高此类强降水的预报技能，具有较好的应用价值。
关键词:东北冷涡/
预报—实况概率匹配法/
降水预报订正
Abstract:Using the precipitation samples from the northeast cold vortex in the Haihe River basin, based on the encrypted observation station data and precipitation forecast data produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we conducted a sliding time window correlation analysis between 24-h precipitation observation and forecast series to re-establish the precipitation forecast series. Then, we matched the frequency with the gamma cumulative probability distribution curve of 24-h precipitation observation, re-established the 1–3-days short-term forecast series on each of the encrypted observation stations to enable correction of precipitation forecast in the Haihe River basin, and checked the forecast effect of the correction of precipitation forecast. The results showed that the period of ECMWF model precipitation forecast is mainly slower than that of the observation of the northeast cold vortex precipitation forecast in the Haihe River basin. The frequency matching method mainly improves forecasting skills by correcting the precipitation magnitude. TS (Threat Score) of the precipitation calibration forecast has been improved for light rain, heavy rain, and rainstorm. The magnitude and area of precipitation calibration forecast need to be close to the observation station data, particularly for the forecasting of heavy rain and rainstorm. However, the model has poor forecasting skills for convective precipitation caused by the northeast cold vortex. Thus, the precipitation-calibration forecast can effectively improve the forecasting skills for heavy precipitation, resulting in good business application prospects.
Key words:Northeast cold vortex/
Frequency matching method/
Precipitation forecast correction
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