摘要:采用集合经验模分解（ensemble empirical mode decomposition, EEMD）以及滑动t检验方法，基于漠河市1958～2019年逐日气温及降水数据，对其进行了趋势及突变分析。结果表明，漠河市日平均温度年平均整体呈增温趋势，EEMD非线性增温速率为0.43°C (10 a)－1，滑动t检验显示漠河市近60年来年均温突变时间点为20世纪80年代中后期；漠河市日最高温度年平均呈增温趋势，EEMD非线性增温速率为0.61°C (10 a)－1，滑动t检验显示漠河市近60年来日最高温年平均突变时间点为20世纪80年代中后期；漠河市日最低温年平均变化趋势为先增加后减小，整体呈增温趋势，EEMD非线性增温速率为0.21°C (10 a)－1，滑动t检验显示漠河市近60年来日最低温年平均突变时间点为20世纪80年代前中期和20世纪90年代中后期。漠河市年降雨量、夜间年降雨量和白天年降雨量均呈先减后增的变化趋势，且增加幅度远高于减小幅度，整体呈增加趋势，EEMD非线性降雨量增加速率分别为14.05 mm (10 a)－1、7.71 mm (10 a)－1和5.12 mm (10 a)－1，滑动t检验显示漠河市近60年来年降雨量、夜间年降雨量和白天年降雨量均不存在时间突变点；EEMD和线性趋势分析均表明漠河市近60年来气温和降水都均呈增加趋势，但前者增加速率远高于后者，说明传统的线性趋势分析可能会低估漠河市的气温及降水的增加趋势。
关键词:气温/
降水/
漠河市/
集合经验模分解（EEMD）/
滑动t检验
Abstract:A multiscale examination of temperature and precipitation in Mohe from 1958 to 2019 was performed using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method and the sliding average t-test method. The results showed that the annual average temperature in Mohe increased by 0.43°C (10 a)－1 with the mid and late 1980s as the abrupt change points. The daily maximum temperature increased by 0.61°C (10 a)－1 with the mid and late 1980s as the abrupt change points, while the daily minimum temperature increased by 0.21°C (10 a)－1 with the early to mid 1980s and late 1990s as the multiple abrupt change points. Furthermore, the rainfall, nighttime rainfall, and daytime rainfall showed a similar change pattern from 1958 to 2019. The trend in the three types of rainfall obtained by EEMD was 14.05 mm (10 a)－1, 7.71 mm (10 a)－1, and 5.12 mm (10 a)－1, respectively. No abrupt change points were detected for all types of precipitation. Both the EEMD and the linear trend analysis found an increase in temperature and precipitation, while the trends obtained by EEMD were greater than that by the linear method, which implies that the traditional linear analysis method underestimates the trends in temperature and precipitation in Mohe.
Key words:Air temperature/
Precipitation/
Mohe/
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)/
Sliding average t-test
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