摘要:热带太平洋对全球的气候有重要作用。然而，关于全球变暖背景下热带太平洋海温长期趋势的研究，迄今为止仍有争议。本文利用多套海表温度资料和次表层海温资料，基于无参的趋势估计方法（Theil-Sen趋势），分析了热带太平洋海表温度长期趋势及赤道太平洋次表层海温长期趋势。多套资料的结果均表明在全球变暖背景下，热带太平洋冷舌区为长期冷趋势，而冷舌区之外的热带太平洋区域为长期暖趋势，即似La Ni?a（La Ni?a-like）海温长期趋势。此海温长期趋势是由热带太平洋冷舌模态所引起。当冷舌模态为正位相时，对应热带太平洋冷舌区为冷海温异常，而冷舌区之外的热带太平洋为暖海温异常。冷舌模态时间序列主要为长期趋势，而造成冷舌模态长期趋势的机制是全球变暖强迫下的海洋动力反馈过程。赤道太平洋的表层和次表层海温似La Ni?a型的长期趋势，是冷舌模态在表层海温和次表层海温上的不同体现。
关键词:全球变暖/
热带太平洋/
海温长期趋势
Abstract:The tropical Pacific plays an important role in modulating the global climate. However, large discrepancies remain among the various estimates of the long-term trend in the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using multiple sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface temperature datasets, this study investigates the long-term trend of SST in the tropical Pacific and the long-term trend of subsurface temperature in the equatorial Pacific based on the Theil-Sen trend estimation method. Our results indicate a cooling trend in the Pacific cold tongue region and a warming trend in the rest of the tropical Pacific under global warming. That is, the long-term trend of oceanic temperature has a La Ni?a-like pattern. Furthermore, this La Ni?a-like pattern in the tropical Pacific is induced by the cold tongue mode (CTM). A positive CTM is characterized by the cold temperature anomaly in the Pacific cold tongue region and the warm temperature anomaly in the rest of the tropical Pacific. Moreover, the time series of the CTM mainly exhibits a strong long-term trend, which is induced by the ocean dynamical processes in response to global warming. The La Ni?a-like pattern of the long-term trend of the SST and subsurface temperature in the equatorial Pacific indicates the different aspects of the CTM.
Key words:Global warming/
Tropical Pacific/
Long-term trend of oceanic temperature
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