摘要:为了揭示长江中下游地区暴雨变化特征，基于1958～2017年426站点的逐日降水资料，定义4个暴雨特征变量，通过线性趋势分析、累积距平检验、滑动t检验和Pettitt检验进行趋势变化分析以及突变检验。结果表明：1）年暴雨量和年暴雨日数从江西中部向周围递减，年暴雨强度和年暴雨变异系数从南到北逐渐增加；4个暴雨特征变量存在明显的季节差异，夏季是全年暴雨的主要贡献者，春季暴雨明显多于秋季，冬季最少，但其暴雨变异系数最大，波动性强。2）74%站点的年均暴雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨强度呈增加趋势；从西北往东南，年均暴雨量、暴雨日数的线性趋势率逐渐增加。暴雨量和暴雨日数显著增加的站点比分别为17.8%和16.7%（p < 0.05）。3）累积距平检验、滑动t检验和Pettitt检验结果表明1988年是近60年长江中下游地区暴雨变化显著的突变点，且1988年后三个暴雨特征变量的平均值和趋势率较1988年前有明显增加。
关键词:长江中下游地区/
暴雨/
趋势分析/
突变检验
Abstract:To investigate the variation characteristics of rainstorms in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1958 to 2017, four rainstorm characteristic variables were defined based on daily precipitation data of 426 stations. The tendency analysis and mutation test were conducted using a linear trend analysis, cumulative anomaly test, sliding t-test, and the Pettitt test. Results showed that: 1) There was a gradual decrease of the average annual rainstorm and rainstorm days from central Jiangxi to the surrounding areas, and a gradual increase of the average annual rainstorm intensity and rainstorm variation coefficient from south to north. The four rainstorm characteristics variables showed evident seasonal differences. Most rainstorms occurred in the order: summer > spring > autumn > winter. However, the largest rainstorm variation coefficient can be found in winter, showing strong volatility in winter. 2) An increasing tendency in average annual rainstorms, rainstorm days, and rainstorm intensity was observed at 74% of all the stations. The linear trend rates of the average annual rainstorms and rainstorm days gradually increase from northwest to southeast. In addition, the ratio of stations having significant increasing (p < 0.05) in the annual rainstorms and rainstorm days were 17.8% and 16.7%, respectively. 3) Results of the cumulative anomaly test, sliding t-test, and Pettitt test indicated that a significant change of rainstorms occurred in 1988 in the middle-lower Yangtze River Valley. Meanwhile, the average and trend rates of three rainstorm characteristic variables significantly increased after 1988.
Key words:Middle-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River/
Rainstorm/
Trend analysis/
Mutation test
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