摘要:根据1979~2016年春季海表温度、土壤温度以及大尺度气候指数与中亚地区夏季温度的相关关系，确定了印度洋东南部海表温度、非洲西北部土壤温度、大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）和东亚/西俄型（EA/WR）4个春季预测因子，进而建立了中亚地区夏季温度的预测模型。春季印度洋东南部海表温度暖异常、非洲西北部土壤温度暖异常、AMO正异常与EA/WR负异常均对应夏季中亚地区500 hPa位势高度场正异常，为该地区夏季高温发生提供有利条件。预测模型留一法交叉验证产生的1979~2016年中亚地区夏季温度无（有）趋势的时间序列与观测的无（有）趋势的时间序列的相关为0.65（0.74），表明该预测模型具有良好的预测能力。研究结果有望帮助提高中亚地区夏季温度的预测技巧。
关键词:中亚地区/
夏季温度/
季节预测
Abstract:Based on correlations of summer temperature over Central Asia with spring sea surface temperature, spring soil temperature, and spring large-scale climate indexes for the period of 1979-2016, the study identifies four spring predictors including sea surface temperature over the southeastern Indian Ocean, soil temperature over northwestern Africa, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Eastern Asia/Western Russia (EA/WR) pattern to establish a prediction model for summer temperature over Central Asia. Positive anomalies of spring sea surface temperature over the southeastern Indian Ocean, spring soil temperature over northwest Africa and spring AMO and negative anomalies of spring EA/WR are corresponding to positive summer geopotential height anomalies over Central Asia, which are favorable for high summer temperature. The correlation coefficient between the detrended (original) time series of summer temperature averaged over Central Asia produced by leave-one-out cross-validation and the observation is 0.65 (0.74), indicating that the model has a good performance in seasonal prediction of summer temperature over Central Asia. Results of the present study are expected to help improve the seasonal prediction skill of summer temperature over Central Asia.
Key words:Central Asia/
Summer temperature/
Seasonal prediction
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