摘要:为评估2014年南京青奥会开幕式日的人工催化消减雨作业效果，利用中尺度数值模式WRF对当日的云降水过程和催化作业开展数值模拟。本文系第一部分工作。首先对常用的八种云微物理方案的降水模拟效果进行评估，进一步选取Thompson和Milbrandt-Yau两个微物理方案对此次降水过程的云系结构和降水形成机制进行对比分析。模拟结果表明，采用Thompson和Milbrandt-Yau两个方案模拟的云系结构和降水形成的微物理机制是一致的。开幕式当天影响奥体场馆的降水由弱的积层混合云系产生，降水过程以冰相微物理过程为主。雪的融化是雨水的主要源项，Thompson方案中雪的融化对雨水的贡献率为72%，Milbrandt-Yau方案为60%，蒸发则是雨水的主要汇项，Thompson方案中蒸发对雨水的消耗率达94%，Milbrandt-Yau方案为95.6%。
关键词:人工消减雨/
积层混合云/
冰相微物理过程/
雨水蒸发/
WRF模式
Abstract:To evaluate the effect of cloud seeding operation for rain suppression during the opening ceremony of the Nanjing 2014 Youth Olympics Games, the weather research and forecasting model was used to simulate the precipitation processes and the cloud seeding operation. The present work is the first part of the study. First, the effects of precipitation simulation using eight microphysics schemes were evaluated through comparison with the observation. Furthermore, we used Thompson and Milbrandt–Yau microphysics schemes to analyze the cloud structures and precipitation formation mechanisms. The results showed that the cloud structures and precipitation mechanisms simulated by the two microphysics schemes were consistent. The precipitation affecting the Nanjing Olympic Sports Center on the opening ceremony day was generated by the weak mixed convective–stratiform cloud system, and the precipitation processes were dominated by ice-phase microphysical processes. The melting of snow was the main source of rainwater, contributing 72% in the Thompson microphysics scheme and 60% in the Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme, and the evaporation was the main sink term, which consumed 94% of the rainwater in the Thompson microphysics scheme and 95.6% in the Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme.
Key words:Cloud seeding operation for rain suppression/
Mixed convective–stratiform cloud/
Ice-phase microphysical processes/
Rain evaporation/
Weather research and forecasting model
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