\r王 宁^{1, 2}，杜修力¹，张明聚¹，许成顺¹，卢鑫月¹

AuthorsHTML:\r王 宁^{1, 2}，杜修力¹，张明聚¹，许成顺¹，卢鑫月¹

AuthorsListE:\rWang Ning^{1, 2}，Du Xiuli¹，Zhang Mingju¹，Xu Chengshun¹，Lu Xinyue¹


AuthorsHTMLE:\rWang Ning^{1, 2}，Du Xiuli¹，Zhang Mingju¹，Xu Chengshun¹，Lu Xinyue¹


Unit:\r1. 北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾省部共建教育部重点实验室，北京 100124；
2. 石家庄铁道大学道路与铁道工程安全保障省部共建教育部重点实验室，石家庄 050043


Unit_EngLish:\r1. Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education，Beijing University of Technology，Beijing 100124，China；
2. Key Laboratory of Road and Railway Engineering Safety Control of Ministry of Education，Shijiazhuang Tiedao University，Shijiazhuang 050043，China


Abstract_Chinese:\r针对地铁盾构施工风险评估中人因可靠性分析(HRA)问题，构建了一种加权模糊CREAM 模型．首先，利用复相关性分析和证据理论确定共同绩效条件因子(CPC)的合理权重．其次，基于现行规范编制CPC 评价细则，利用统计方法得到了CPC 水平隶属函数．在此基础上，提出将离散基本控制模式图连续化的方法，建立了地铁盾构施工人因失误概率(HEP)点估计值预测模型，通过4 条公理验证了模型的合理性和可靠性．结果表明：加权模糊CREAM 模型将权重引入到CPC 效应值计算和HEP 推理中，能更好地反映不同CPC 因子对人行为绩效的影响，可为地铁盾构施工HRA提供定量评估数据．


Abstract_English:\rTo overcome the difficulties of human reliability analysis in risk assessment for shield tunneling，this paper proposes a weighted fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)model. First，the reasonable weight of common performance conditions(CPCs)is obtained by multiple correlation analysis and evidence theory.
Second，the specification evaluation rules for CPCs are established based on the current standard，and the membership function for each level of CPCs is obtained by statistical method. On this basis，a continuum technique for the discrete basic diagram for control mode is proposed，and an estimate model，which can be used to determine the human error probability(HEP)in the construction of shield-driven tunnel，is established. Then，the rationality and reliability of the model are verified by four axioms. Results show that the method of introducing the weight into the calculation of the expected CPC effect and the HEP reasoning in the weighted fuzzy CREAM model can better reflect the effect of CPCs on human performance. This model can also provide a reference for quantitative HRA in shield tunneling of subways.


Keyword_Chinese:盾构施工；人因可靠性分析；施工风险；CREAM


Keywords_English:shield tunneling；human reliability analysis(HRA)；construction risk；CREAM



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