基于SD-FLUS模型的中国海岸带LUCC多情景模拟
其他题名Multi-scenario simulation of LUCC in China's coastal zone based on SD-FLUS model
宋百媛
学位类型硕士
导师侯西勇
2021-05-09
培养单位中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所
学位名称理学硕士
学位专业地图学与地理信息系统
关键词LUCC情景模拟系统动力学FLUS模型中国海岸带
摘要土地利用/覆被变化（Land Use and Land Cover Change，LUCC）是环境变化和可持续发展研究的重要内容。模拟未来土地数量和空间格局对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。目前LUCC情景模拟研究主要以中小区域短期模拟为主，难以反映较大空间尺度的长期趋势性的变化特征。中国海岸带是地处亚欧大陆和太平洋之间的过渡地带，空间范围大而且土地利用类型复杂多样。高强度的人类活动致使海岸带土地资源紧张，生态系统发生改变，由此加大了应对全球变化风险的复杂性和不确定性。鉴于此，为了确保中国海岸带区域健康可持续发展，亟需开展中国海岸带LUCC长时间序列多情景模拟研究。中国海岸带包括大陆部分、近岸岛屿以及浅海/近海水域，在本研究中，陆域依据东部沿海地级市行政区划确定边界，海域为距离行政区陆海分界线10 km与10 m等深线的并集范围区域。针对该区域，在把握2000~2015年海岸带土地利用变化特征以及对未来经济社会发展长期态势进行分析的基础上，建立SD-FLUS模型，基于SSP1-RCP2.6（A）、SSP2-RCP4.5（B）、SSP3-RCP4.5（C）情景，自上而下的宏观面积需求预测与自下而上的微观空间模拟相结合，得到至2100年多情景土地需求时间序列模拟结果，以及2020、2025、2030、2035、2040、2050、2060、2070、2080、2090和2100年土地利用空间分布模拟结果。主要结论如下：（1）中国海岸带土地利用变化特征分析：中国海岸带区域土地利用类型丰富，主要类型是耕地、林地、浅海水域和建设用地；土地利用由海向陆总体呈现出由“浅海水域→滨海湿地→人工湿地→以北耕南林为主的陆域多类型混合区域”过渡的宏观格局特征；综合各地类近15年的变化幅度，整体的变化幅度和速率逐渐减缓；土地利用程度综合指数呈较为显著的递增趋势，表明中国海岸带土地利用的集约化水平与程度不断提高。（2）气候分异、海陆梯度和高程分异等自然因素对海岸带LUCC产生显著影响。人文因素主要有人口数量、经济发展水平、产业结构、城镇化水平、政策导向。此外，以距离为表象的区位因素会显著影响土地利用分布与变化。未来时期人口数量增长速度放缓，经济发展呈上升趋势；城镇化率逐步提升，到2050年后开始趋于稳定。（3）构建的SD模型对未来时期多情景土地数量需求的模拟效果较好，在各海岸带分区内具有普适性。构建以人口、经济为主导因素的SD模型模拟未来时期海岸带土地需求量，是一种较好深入理解土地利用变化动力机制的方法。SD模型模拟结果表明：情景A，经济社会发展对土地资源的依赖性较小，对建设用地和人工湿地的需求量相对较少，有助于各种生态型地类的保护与恢复；情景B，经济社会发展对土地资源的需求在3种情景中处于中间位置；情景C，经济社会发展对生活、生产用地的需求显著，建设用地扩张，耕地萎缩显著，自然生态型地类面积相对较小。（4）FLUS模型有效地模拟了未来时期多情景土地利用空间分布，模拟结果表明：虽然多情景之间存在较为明显的差异，但整体来看，三生（生产、生活、生态）空间向海拓展趋势仍较为显著。情景A，地类趋向集中分布和格局优化的态势显著；情景B，建设用地及人工湿扩展、海岸带林草地萎缩的趋势比较明显；情景C，建设用地、人工湿地与耕地向海扩张的趋势均较为显著，耕地减少、内陆水体萎缩严重，海岸线人工化，人地冲突加剧。基于中国海岸带多情景模拟结果的对比分析，提出了未来时期中国海岸带空间开发利用与管制的相关建议。中国海岸带LUCC情景模拟研究为适应新时期社会发展制定合理的土地利用开发、管制政策，优化国土空间，为海岸带区域中长期的战略决策制定与措施细化提供科学支持，对保护海岸带生态环境、提升海岸带综合管理能力、促进沿海地区经济社会可持续发展具有重要科学意义。
其他摘要Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) is an important part of environmental Change and sustainable development research. Simulation of future land quantity and spatial pattern is of great significance to regional sustainable development. At present, LUCC scenario simulation studies mainly focus on the short-term simulation of small and medium scale regions, which is inadequate to reflect the long-term trend change characteristics of large spatial scale. China's coastal zone is located in the transitional zone between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean, with a large space range and complex and diverse land use types. Intensity of human activities has strained land resources in coastal zones and altered ecosystems, thus increasing the complexity and uncertainty of dealing with the risks of global change. In view of this, in order to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of China's coastal zone, it is urgent to carry out long-term series multi-scenario LUCC simulation research on China's coastal zone.China's coastal zone includes the mainland part, offshore islands and shallow sea/offshore waters. The boundary of the land region in this study is determined according to the administrative divisions of prefecture-level cities in the eastern coastal areas, and the sea area is the combined range of 10 km and 10 m isobath from the land-sea boundary of the administrative region. For this region, we are grasping the characteristics of land use change in coastal zone from 2000 to 2015 and analyzing the long-term economic and social development in the future. Based on SSP1-RCP2.6 (A), SSP2-RCP4.5 (B), and SSP3-RCP4.5 (C) scenarios, the SD-FLUS model was established. It is a model that combines top-down macro-area demand forecasting and bottom-up micro-space simulation. Through the model, the simulation results of multi-scenario land demand time series up to 2100 are obtained, as well as the simulation results of the spatial distribution of land use in 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, and 2100. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The analysis of land use change characteristics in China's coastal zone shows that there are rich land use types in China's coastal zone, and the main land use types are cultivated land, woodland, shallow sea water and construction land. The land use in China's coastal zone shows a transitional pattern from sea to land, from shallow sea water to coastal wetland to constructed wetland to land mixed with multi-types mainly cultivated in the north and forested in the south. Considering the variation range of different species in the last 15 years, the overall variation range and rate slowed down gradually. The comprehensive index of land use degree showed a significant increasing trend, which indicated that the level and degree of intensification of land use in China's coastal zone is continuously increasing.(2) Natural factors, such as climate differentiation, sea-land gradient and elevation differentiation, have significant effects on LUCC in the coastal zone. Human factors mainly include the number of population, level of economic development, industrial structure, level of urbanization and policy orientation. In addition, location factors represented by distance will significantly affect the distribution and changes of land use. In the future, the population growth rate will slow down and the economic development trend will be on the rise. The urbanization rate will gradually increase and will start to stabilize after 2050.(3) The constructed SD model has a good simulation effect on the land quantity demand of multiple scenarios in the future period, and is universal in each coastal zone. It is a better way to understand the dynamic mechanism of land use change to construct the SD model with population and economy as the leading factors to simulate the future land demand in coastal zone. The simulation results show that the economic and social development in Scenic A is less dependent on land resources, and the demand for construction land and constructed wetland is relatively small, which is conducive to the protection and restoration of various ecological land types; Scenario B: The demand for land resources in economic and social development is in the middle of the three scenarios; Scenario C Economic and social development has significant demand for living and production land, construction land expands, cultivated land is seriously shrinking, and the area of natural ecological land type is relatively small.(4) The FLUS model effectively simulates the spatial distribution of multi-scenario land use in the future. The simulation results show that although there are obvious differences between the multi-scenarios, on the whole, the trend of the expansion of Sansheng (production, life, ecology) space to the sea is still more significant. In Scenario A, the trend of centralized distribution and pattern optimization of land types is obvious. In Scenario B, the expansion of construction land and artificial wetlands and the shrinking of coastal forests and grasslands are obvious. In Scenario C, the expansion of construction land, artificial wetlands and cultivated land toward the sea is more significant. Cultivated land has decreased, inland water bodies have shrunk severely, coastlines have been artificialized, and human-land conflicts have intensified. Based on the comparative analysis of the results of multi-scenario simulation of China's coastal zone, relevant suggestions for the development, utilization and control of China's coastal zone space in the future are put forward.China's coastal zone LUCC scene simulation studies in order to adapt to social development, formulate reasonable land use development in the new period, the control policy, to optimize the land space, medium and long term strategic decision making and measures for coastal zone area refinement to provide scientific support, to protect ecological environment of coastal zone, coastal zone comprehensive management ability, promoting the sustainable development of coastal area economic society has important scientific significance.
页数99
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.yic.ac.cnhttp://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/28412
专题中科院烟台海岸带研究所知识产出

推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714宋百媛. 基于SD-FLUS模型的中国海岸带LUCC多情景模拟[D]. 中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所. 中国科学院大学,2021.


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