Xie, Naru1,2; Sun, Yidi1,2; Gao, Meng1,2,3
发表期刊ATMOSPHERE
2020-11-01
卷号11期号:11页码:17
关键词extratropical cyclonesteleconnection patternscomposite analysisPoisson regressionBayesian model averaging
DOI10.3390/atmos11111248
通讯作者Gao, Meng(mgao@yic.ac.cn)
英文摘要Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the Northwest Pacific are identified and tracked by applying an objective tracking algorithm to the 6-h time interval relative vorticity fields from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. A total of 2145 ETCs in the November-February winters for the period of 1979-2018 were identified. First, by comparing the ETC track densities in the two periods 1979-1998 and 1999-2018, a significant difference in ETC track density was detected over the Japan Sea, Japan, and North Pacific. Next, the influence of five teleconnection patterns, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Western Pacific (WP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the ETC track density was investigated by using composite analysis and correlation analysis. WP, NAO, and PDO patterns contributed more to the interannual variability of ETC track density, and higher cyclone densities usually occur in the negative phase of these teleconnection patterns. In contrast, the effects of ENSO and PNA were relatively weak. Finally, a Poisson generalized linear regression model for the ETC counts with respect to the five teleconnection indices was also developed for the purpose of linking all the teleconnection patterns with ETC activities over Northwest Pacific; and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) procedure was used for model selection in the statistical modeling. The influence of the five teleconnection patterns on ETC track density was also verified in the regression model. The predicted winter ETC counts agreed well with the historical records during 1979-2018 over the Northwest Pacific.
资助机构Key Deployment Project of Center for Ocean Mega-Science, CAS; Key Research Program of Frontier Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS
收录类别SCI
语种英语
关键词[WOS]SURFACE CYCLOLYSIS; LIFE-CYCLE; MODEL; CLASSIFICATION; CLIMATOLOGY; OCEAN; VARIABILITY; FREQUENCY; DIAGNOSIS
研究领域[WOS]Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000593530500001
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.yic.ac.cnhttp://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/28291
专题中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室_海岸带信息集成与战略规划研究中心
中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室
通讯作者Gao, Meng作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Key Lab Coastal Zone Environm Proc & Ecol Remedia, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714Xie, Naru,Sun, Yidi,Gao, Meng. The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2020,11(11):17.
APAXie, Naru,Sun, Yidi,&Gao, Meng.(2020).The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific.ATMOSPHERE,11(11),17.
MLAXie, Naru,et al."The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific".ATMOSPHERE 11.11(2020):17.
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