主 题：Cumulativeeffects of air pollution on public health
主讲人：夏应存教授
主持人：林华珍教授
时 间：2015年7月9日下午2：00-3：00
地 点：通博楼B座212学术会议室
主办单位：统计研究中心 统计学院 科研处
主讲人简介：
夏应存1999年毕业于香港大学统计及精算学系，2000年至2003年为剑桥大学动物学系研究员，2003至今在新加坡国立大学统计与应用概率系工作，2009年升为教授。夏应存的研究兴趣包括非参数回归分析，半参数降维， 传染病的动态建模，计量经济及金融时间序列分析。《JRSSB》， 《Statistical Sciences》及《statistica Sinica》曾公开专题讨论他发表的论文； 《Nature News》等十几家学术媒体对其工作做过专题报道。 夏应存2011年入选国家****，2014年获Econometric Theory Multa Scripsit奖，现任《Annals of Statistics》 副主编。
摘要：
Cumulative effect is an important way throughwhich the pollutants affect public health. However , few existing dynamicalmodels are well enough understood and documented to detect or quantify the cumulativeeffects and to answer pertinent questions posed by the World HealthOrganization (WHO):`Is there a threshold below which no effects of thepollutants on health are expected to occur in all people?’ and ‘What averagingperiod (time pattern) is the most relevant from the point of view of health?'.Using a new semi-parametric time series modelling approach, which incorporatesnon-linearity and latent cumulative variables, we show that the cumulativeeffects on health due to continual exposure to environmental pollutants can bevery serious even at levels below the national ambient air quality standards ofAmerica (NAAQS). The situation is especially worrying for chronic sufferers.Our study suggests that different pollutants may require different cumulativeperiods (on average) to impact on health but they share a similar functionalform in respect of their impact. We also suggest some possible revision of theambient air quality standards.
