主讲人:瑞典皇家科学院院士 Timo Ter?svirta 教授
主 题:Aspects of economic forecasting.
主持人:统计学院 喻开志教授
时 间:2014年12月25日(星期四)下午:2:00
地 点:柳林校区通博楼B212
主 办:统计学院 科研处
主讲人介绍:
Timo教授是国际著名计量经济学家、瑞典皇家科学院院士、诺贝尔奖评审委员会委员,主要从事非线性时间序列计量经济学、经济预测、宏观经济波动性研究,在国际权威SSCI、SCI杂志上发表论文多篇。
讲座内容:
In the beginning of this talk consider different types of economic forecasts are considered and what they are used for. Then the focus shifts on methods of economic forecasting. They may be broadly divided into qualitative and quantitative methods. Both types of methods are considered. The former consist, among other things, of the Delphi method and the surveys. The latter comprise a wide variety of techniques from analogy forecasts to econometric models. Some of these methods are quite simple, some of them require somewhat advanced computational tools.