Host: Professor Li Gan, Dean of RIEM
Time: 2:30 pm--4:00 pm, Friday, Sept. 19
Venue: H515 Yide Hall, Liulin Campus
Abstract: Previous research on the United States and Japan finds economically large impacts of changing real estate collateral value on firm investment. Working with unique data on land values in 35 major Chinese markets and a panel of firms outside the real estate industry, we estimate investment equations that yield no evidence of a collateral channel effect. One reason for this stark difference appears to be that some of the most dominant firms in China are state-owned enterprises (SOEs) which are unconstrained
in the sense that they do not need to rely on rising underlying property collateral values to obtain all the financing necessary to carry out their desired investment programs. However, we also find no collateral channel effect for non-SOEs when we perform our analysis on disaggregated sets of firms. Norms and regulation in the Chinese capital markets and banking sector can account for why there is no collateral channel effect operating among these firms. We caution that our results do not mean that there will be no negative fallout from a potential real estate bust on the Chinese economy. There are good reasons to believe there would be, just not through a standard collateral channel effect on firm investment.
About the speaker:
邓永恒教授，美国加州大学伯克利分校经济学博士，宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院房地产金融博士后，新加坡国立大学教务长讲席教授，房地产研究院院长，国大商学院金融系教授，建筑设计与环境学院房地产系教授、系主任。现任达沃斯论坛(World Economic Forum) 全球议程理事会 (Global Agenda Council)未来城市化分会理事，达沃斯论坛领军城市指导委员会委员，美国房地产和城市经济学会主席，新加坡国立大学全球亚洲研究院指导委员会成员。曾出任美国联邦政府房产金融办专家，新加坡政府经济战略委员会土地委员会成员，达沃斯论坛全球议程理事会房地产分会主席，金融与资本分会副主席, 国际清算银行亚太地区代办处特别顾问。1999 年至2008 年间任聘于美国南加州大学，政策规划与发展学院及马歇尔商学院为终身教授。主要研究领域涉及与房地产金融和城市经济政策相关的各项问题的研究，包括中国住房市场风险及房价分析，中国城市化发展研究，住房抵押贷款证券化及其衍生产品的资产定价，结构金融和証劵设计，信用风险研究，计量经济分析，关于加强对于低收入家庭和高风险群体按揭贷款的政策分析，以及绿色建筑、可持续发展，和金融市场的治理与研究。并在Econometrica, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Finance, European Economic Review, The NBER Digest, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Journal of Housing Economics 等著名国际经济、金融学期刊上发表上述研究论文。
