主 题：Responsiveness of Yield and Acreage to Climate and Prices
主讲人： University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Prof. T Madhu Khanna
主持人：西南财经大学经济与管理研究院 陈晓光教授
时 间：2014年9月15日上午9:30--11:30
地 点：光华校区经管楼305会议室
主办单位：经济与管理研究院 科研处
主讲人简介：Madhu Khanna Professor from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is a very productive scholar in the field of environmental economics/agricultural economics. She has published more than 80 peer-reviewed journal articles, and many articles have appeared in top field journals, such as Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and American Journal of Agricultural Economics (AJAE). In addition, she has attracted multi-million dollars from different sources to fund her research. Currently, she is an AJAE editor.
内容提要：Previous studies investigating the determinants of crop yield and acreage have tended to focus on estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields while disregarding price effects and on estimating the impact of crop price variations on crop acreage while disregarding climate variables. The purpose of this study is to analyze the potential for crop price and climate variables to lead to changes in production both at the intensive and extensive margin. We undertake this analysis using a large scale county-level panel dataset of rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States over 1977-2007. Instrumental variable and generalized method of moment techniques are used to control for endogeneity of prices in the yield and acreage equations, respectively, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on both corn and soybean yields. But the effect of soybean price on corn and soybean yields is not statistically significant. We show that omitting price variables overestimates the impact of climate change on corn yield by 11~16%, depending on climate change scenarios and temporal ranges considered. Moreover, we find that 59% of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price is due to yield enhancement at the intensive margin while 41% is due to acreage expansion.
