主 题：Longshot Risks: Theory and Evidence from a Large Stake Experiment
主讲人：Soohong Chew （周恕弘）教授
主持人：梁平汉 副教授
时 间：12月18日（星期三）下午2：00——3：30
地 点：通博楼C216
主办单位：实验经济学实验室 财税学院 科研处
主讲人简介：
周恕弘教授是世界著名的实验经济学家和行为经济学家（http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/people/profile /ecscsh.html），曾执教于美国亚利桑那大学、约翰霍普金斯大学，加州大学尔湾分校，香港科技大学（担任讲座教授）。他还是香港科技大学实验商业研究实验室和新加坡国立大学行为和生物经济与社会科学实验室的主任。他曾经在Econometrica, Journal of Economic Theory等世界顶级学术期刊上发表十多篇论文，2011年他当选为国际经济计量学会(Econometric Society)的会士(Fellow)，是这一世界上最著名的经济学协会自1933年创建以来的第11位华人会士。近年来他开始研究脑神经经济学和基因对于人的经济行为的影响，论文发表在Neuron, PLoS ONE等国际著名的生物科学期刊上。
内容提要：
This study investigates attitude towards longshot risks in an incentivized experiment. Using fixed-odds-fixed-outcome state lottery tickets in China, we construct a set of lotteries, which have explicit probabilities of winning between 1/10 and 1/100,000 and payoffs ranging from RMB10 to RMB10,000,000, grouped under three levels of expected payoffs: RMB1, RMB10, and RMB100. Maintaining the same winning probability or winning outcome, subjects tend to switch from being risk seeking to risk averse as mean payoff increases. In addition, we observe significant incidence of longshot preference, i.e., switching from being risk averse to risk seeking as winning probability decreases while keeping the same mean payoff. Moreover, both of these choice patterns are closely related to the observed incidence of common-ratio Allais behavior. Taken together, our findings are compatible with non-expected utility models relying on nonlinear probability weighting, but not with those involving multiple moments.
