, 马云峰3, 陈国平41. 东北大学 资源与土木工程学院, 辽宁 沈阳 110819;
2. 辽宁省环境保护厅, 辽宁 沈阳 110033;
3. 沈阳航空航天大学 能源与环境学院, 辽宁 沈阳 110136;
4. 中国科学院 上海天文台, 上海 200030
收稿日期：2016-06-27
基金项目：辽宁省教育厅一般项目（L2015405）；沈阳航空航天大学博士启动基金资助项目（16YB17）。
作者简介：沈越(1971-), 男, 辽宁沈阳人, 东北大学博士研究生;
胡筱敏(1958-), 男, 江西婺源人, 东北大学教授, 博士生导师。
摘要：基于环境保护指挥自动化系统C4ISRE，提出了核电站大气核污染扩散预警方法.首先，构建红沿河核电站"海/陆/空/天一体化"仿真环境.其次，根据核污染扩散想定应用气象数据驱动HYSPLIT4.9模型，模拟大气核污染物输送特征，进而推演模拟各个重点区域的预警应急处置时间.推演结果表明：核污染扩散气团经过71.885 s到达常规岛废液贮存罐厂房；79.306 s扩散至热机修车间和仓库；91.596 s抵达废水处理站和车库；132.267 s扩散至厂界海区边界；655.337 s扩散至烟羽应急区5 km边界；712 s进入黄泥洞村空界；1 240.535 s扩散至烟羽应急区10 km边界；2 527.945 s扩散至长兴岛镇空界；3 468.65 s扩展至烟羽应急区30 km边界.
关键词：C4ISRE核电站大气核污染扩散海陆空天一体化HYSPLIT
Warning Technology for Air Nuclear Pollution Diffusion of Nuclear Power Plant
SHEN Yue1,2, HU Xiao-min1
, MA Yun-feng3, CHEN Guo-ping41. School of Resources & Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China;
2. Department of Environmental Protection of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110033, China;
3. College of Energy and Environment, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang 110136, China;
4. Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200030, China
Corresponding author: HU Xiao-min, professor, E-mail:rcdxph@126.com
Abstract: Based on environmental protection automatic command system (C4ISRE), the early warning technology for air nuclear pollution diffusion of the nuclear power plant was proposed. Firstly, an integration simulation environment of sea, land, sky and space for Hong Yanhe Nuclear Power Plant was constructed. Secondly, nuclear pollution diffusion scenario was set up and the HYSPLIT4.9 model was drove by meteorological data according to the scenario. Then, the atmospheric nuclear pollutant transport characteristics were simulated, and the early warning emergency response times for key areas were simulated and deduced. The deduction results showed that nuclear pollution air mass spreads into the waste storage tank factory building of conventional island after 71.885 s, the airspace of heat engine repair shop and warehouse after 79.306 s, the airspace of wastewater treatment plant and garage after 91.596 s, the airspace of the boundary of the plant boundary and sea after 132.267 s, plume boundary of emergency region 5 km after 655.337 s, the airspace of Wong Tung Village after 712 s, plume boundary of emergency region 10 km after 1240.535 s, the airspace of Changxing Island town after 2 527.945 s, and plume boundary of emergency region 30 km after 3 468.65 s.
Key Words: C4ISREnuclear power plantair nuclear pollution diffusionintegration of sea, land, space and skyHYSPLIT
随着我国核电建设的发展, 对核事故应急工作提出了更严峻的挑战和更高的要求.针对新的挑战与要求, 开展与核事业发展新形势相适应的核应急预测预警技术研究, 已成为当前作好核事故应急工作的一项重要课题.
环境保护指挥自动化系统C4ISRE是指以计算机为核心, 具有环境指挥控制、环境污染态势侦察、灾难预警探测、通信、仿真演练和其他环境保护信息保障功能的环保领域的综合信息系统.它的主要功能是信息获取、处理、决策支持和对环保队伍实施指挥与控制, 以及环境污染应急事件模拟、演练、指挥、处理等[1-3].
本文基于C4ISRE系统整合HYSPLIT, AGI STK, Arcgis等技术实现对大气核污染扩散事故的预警、评估, 力求为核电站核污染预警技术的发展开拓一种新的方法.
1 实验方法1.1 混合单粒子拉格朗日积分轨迹算法混合单粒子拉格朗日积分轨迹(hybrid single particle lagrangian integrated trajectory, HYSPLIT)模式4.9是由美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的空气资源实验室和澳大利亚气象局在过去20年间联合研发的一种用于计算和分析大气污染物输送、扩散轨迹的专业模型.该模型具有处理多种气象要素输入场、多种物理过程和不同类型污染物排放源功能的较为完整的输送、扩散和沉降模式, 已经被广泛地应用于多种污染物在各个地区的传输和扩散的研究中.
假设大气核污染气团随风飘动, 那么它的移动轨迹就是其在时间和空间上位置矢量的积分, 即通过初始位置P(t)和第一猜测位置P′(t+Δt)的三维速度矢量的平均值来计算.速度矢量在空间和时间上进行线性内插, 计算公式如下[4-6].
第一猜测位置:
 | (1) |
 | (2) |
 | (3) |
 | (4) |
 | (5) |
1.2 污染气团扩散轨迹迭代聚类算法空间变异(spatial variance, SV)是指在污染气团扩散轨迹迭代聚类过程中, 计算簇内沿着轨迹的端点的空间变异, 计算公式为[7]
 | (6) |
簇空间变异(cluster spatial variance, CSV)是在这个簇内所有污染气团扩散轨迹的空间变异的总和, 计算公式为
 | (7) |
 | (8) |
1.4 C4ISRE系统功能组成C4ISRE的“海/陆/空/天一体化”仿真系统功能组成[13-14]见图 1.
图 1(Fig. 1)
 | 图 1 “海/陆/空/天一体化”仿真环境功能组成Fig.1 Functional components of "integration of sea, land, space and sky"simulation environment |
1.5 基于C4ISRE系统的污染气团模拟推演方法应用HYSPLIT仿真数据, 基于C4ISRE系统综合仿真引擎AGI STK[15], 对核污染气团进行仿真推演.推演仿真过程分为三个部分:核素污染气团扩散轨迹数据输入、基于STK内核的仿真控制、STK仿真内核计算及核素污染气团扩散数据推演显示.
核素污染气团扩散轨迹数据输入:仿真前需要将由HYSPLIT模拟出的核素污染气团扩散轨迹数据构建成STK需要的仿真控制数据文件格式, 本文采用GreatArc格式, 这种格式是一种扩展名为*.ga的仿真数据驱动格式, 采用仿真时间、经度、纬度、高度组合的方式对实体进行仿真推演, 控制文件格式见图 2.
图 2(Fig. 2)
 | 图 2 气团扩散仿真控制文件Fig.2 Simulation control file of air mass diffusing |
2 结果与讨论基于C4ISRE/STK模拟推演后的核素I131大气扩散仿真图见图 3.
图 3(Fig. 3)
 | 图 3 I131扩散的仿真结果Fig.3 Simulation results of I131 spreading |
重要安置点、居民区、应急路线分布见图 4.
图 4(Fig. 4)
 | 图 4 重要安置点、居民区、应急路线分布Fig.4 Distribution of important placement point, residential area and emergency line |
综合图 3、图 4和模拟推演可得到厂址应急预案中重要的安置点和居民区空中500 m处核污染气团的扩散情况.具体分析如下(截选):核污染气团从模拟起始时间2014年4月3日0时0分0秒开始由1号反应堆位置(39.769 N, 121.47 E)经过71.885 s(Lat 39.796, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.45:高度, km)到达常规岛废液贮存罐厂房东北面; 75.696 s(Lat 39.795, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.452) 经过常规岛废液贮存罐厂房上空, 全程历时3.811 s; 79.306 s(Lat 39.795, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.452) 扩散至热机修车间和仓库, 85.636 s(Lat 39.795, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.452) 经过热机修车间和仓库, 全程历时6.33 s; 91.596 s(Lat 39.794, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.452) 抵达废水处理站和车库, 93.896 s(Lat 39.896, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.452) 扩散离开这两个建筑区, 全程历时2.3 s; 132.267 s(Lat 39.791, Lon 121.474, Alt 0.452) 扩散至厂界海区边界；655.337 s扩散至烟羽应急区交界(Lat 39.752, Lon 121.472, Alt 0.445), 712 s进入黄泥洞村空界(Lat 39.747, Lon 121.472, Alt 0.444) 经过33.41 s扩散出黄泥洞村空界(Lat 39.745, Lon 121.472, Alt 0.444);1240.535 s扩散至烟羽应急区10 km交界处(Lat 39.706, Lon 121.470, Alt 0.437);2527.945 s扩散至长兴岛镇空界(Lat 39.604, Lon 121.465, Alt 0.421) 经过79.54 s于2607.485 s扩散出长兴岛镇空界(Lat 39.597, Lon 121.465, Alt 0.419);3 468.65 s扩展至烟羽应急区30 km交界处(Lat 39.526, Lon 121.462, Alt 0.407).各个相关区域的预警处置时间见图 5.
图 5(Fig. 5)
 | 图 5 区域预警及应急处置时间Fig.5 Early warning and emergency response times for relevant area |
在图 5的横坐标中:0代表 1号反应堆; 1抵达常规岛废液贮存罐厂房东北面; 2抵达常规岛废液贮存罐厂房上空; 3抵达热机修车间和仓库; 4经过热机修车间和仓库; 5抵达废水处理站和车库; 6扩散离开这两个建筑区; 7扩散至厂界海区边界; 8扩散至烟羽应急区5 km交界; 9抵达黄泥洞村空界; 10扩散出黄泥洞村空界; 11扩散至烟羽应急区10 km交界处; 12扩散至长兴岛镇空界; 13扩散出长兴岛镇空界; 14扩展至烟羽应急区30 km交界处.
3 结论1) 将HYSPLIT的分析数据转化成STK需要的仿真控制文件, 并对核污染扩散态势进行推演模拟, 进而得到了以秒计算的核污染气团扩散态势.在STK中通过整合相关的*.shp数据及Arcgis专题分析工程文件*.mxd, 得出核污染气团对各个重要区域的详细影响及各个区域对核污染扩散的预警及应急处置反应时间.这种基于C4ISRE的推演技术为环境保护应急部门及核防化部队制定具体的战术方案提供了一种重要的技术支持.
2) 核污染气团从模拟起始时间2014年4月3日0时0分0秒开始由1号反应堆位置(39.769 N, 121.47 E)经过71.885 s到达常规岛废液贮存罐厂房东北面; 79.306 s扩散至热机修车间和仓库, 85.636 s经过热机修车间和仓库; 91.596 s抵达废水处理站和车库; 132.267 s扩散至厂界海区边界; 655.337 s扩散至烟羽应急区交界; 712 s进入黄泥洞村空界; 1240.535 s扩散至烟羽应急区10 km交界处; 2527.945 s扩散至长兴岛镇空界; 3 468.65 s扩展至烟羽应急区30 km交界.
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