作者:费兴妍，丁宇婷
Authors:FEI Xingyan,DING Yuting摘要:控制森林病虫害有利于增加森林碳汇量,对实现我国“双碳”战略具有重要意义 。为了研究森林病虫害对林区的影响,建立了一个含饱和发生率的森林病虫害传播时滞微分方程模型 ,研究了平衡点的存在性与稳定性,以及平衡点处 Hopf分支的存在性,同时利用多尺度方法推导出系统在 Hopf分支临界点附近的规范型 。结合全国森林清查报告等实际数据,对模型中的参数进行分析与预测,得出各参数的取值范围 。选取合理参数进行数值模拟,并研究了部分参数变化对模型的影响 。最后根据模拟结果,结合黑龙江省林区森林病虫害的防控现状给出结论和建议。
Abstract:Controlling forest diseases and insect pests is beneficial to increase forest carbon sink. It is of great significance to realize China ′s“ double carbon ”strategy. In order to study the impact of forest diseases and insect pests on the forest, the authors establish a delayed differential equation model of forest diseases and insect pests infection with saturation incidence, study the existence and stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation near the equilibrium. At the same time, the authors use the multiple time scales method to derive the normal form of the system near the critical point of Hopf bifurcation. Based on the data such as the forest inventory report of China, we analyze and predict the parameters of the model, obtain the range of the parameters, select reasonable parameters for numerical simulation, and study the influence of the changes of some parameters. Finally, according to the simulation results, we provide some relevant conclusions and suggestions based on the current situation of forest disease and insect pest prevention and control in forest areas of Heilongjiang Province.

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