作者:陈丽娟，吴建军，王刚，代子阔，刘振东，谭玉华，周玉龙
Authors:CHEN Li juan,WU Jian jun,WANG Gang,DAI Zi kuo,LIU Zhen dong,TAN Yu hua,ZHOU Yul ong
摘要:变压器作为电力系统中的重要元件之一 ,建立其精确的故障率模型是提高电力系统运维效率的前提条件 。首先 ,基于变压器油中溶解气体数据 ,引入岭形隶属度函数将其状态划分阈值模糊化 ;其次,考虑不同情况下绝缘物质分解时产生气体类型的差异性 ,分析各气体产气速率之间的关联性 ,利用改进的熵权法分配各气体状态量的权重 ;然后 ,综合考虑变压器的健康状态和役龄 ,采用数据驱动的广义多项式混沌方法建立了变压器的故障率分布模型 ;最后 ,通过实例分析计算表明 ,本文所建立的故障率模型具备较高的精度 ,具有一定的工程应用价值。
Abstract:As one of the important components in the power system, establishing its accurate failure rate model is a prerequisite for improving the operation and maintenance efficiency of the power system. Firstly, based on the dissolved gas data of transformer oil, the threshold of state division is fuzzy by introducing ridge membership function. Secondly, considering the difference of gas types generated during the decomposition of insulating materials under different conditions, the correlation between gas production rates is analyzed , and the weight of each gas state quantity is allocated by the improved entropy weight method. Thirdly, considering the health status and service life of transformer, the distribution model of transformer failure rate is established by data-driven generalized polynomial chaos method. Finally, through the example analysis and calculation, the failure rate model established in this paper has a high precision and has a certain value of engineering application.

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