作者:\n\t代燕杰，荆臻，孙永全\n

Authors:\n\tDAI Yanjie,JING Zhen,SUN Yongquan\n
摘要:\n\t针对智能电能表运行状态评估与预测问题，提出综合利用事前、事中、事后多源信息的电能表运行质量综合评价方法。在智能电能表全生命周期内梳理出稳定性、可靠性、异常与事件三类顶层指标。依据误差首检记录和失准误差估计计算初始稳定性指标和动态稳定性指标，并采用正态分布描述稳定性指标并确定分布参数。利用现场拆回表计故障数据计算可靠度和可靠寿命，采用正态分布近似拟合电能表可靠性指标，并利用矩等价方法确定分布参数。利用Bayes定理计算电能表触发异常事件的概率，视该概率服从均匀分布，借助矩等价方法将均匀分布近似转换为正态分布，并计算分布参数。利用运行时间构造时变权重因子，将静态特性指标与动态特性指标相结合评价顶层指标，进而基于模糊理论确定各顶层指标权重，融合多源可靠性信息构建智能电能表运行质量综合评价方法，给出电能表运行状态评价结果和故障风险概率。研究成果对智能电网可靠稳定运行、电力市场现货交易、智能量测设备轮换与运行维护具有参考价值。\n

Abstract:\n\tAiming at the problem of operation state evaluation and prediction of high reliability and long life smart meter, a comprehensive evaluation method of smart meter operation quality by integrating multisource information is proposed. Three top level indexes of stability, reliability and abnormal events are analyzed in the whole life cycle of smart meter. The initial stability index and dynamic stability index are calculated according to the error first inspection record and misalignment error estimation, and the normal distribution is used to describe the stability index and determine the distribution parameters. The reliability and reliability life are calculated by using the fault data of the on site disassembled meter. The reliability index of the smart meter is approximately fitted by the normal distribution, and the distribution parameters are determined by the moment equivalent method. Bayes theorem is used to calculate the probability of triggering abnormal events of smart meter. Considering that the probability obeys uniform distribution, the uniform distribution is approximately transformed into normal distribution with the help of moment equivalent method, and the distribution parameters are calculated. The time varying weight factor is constructed by using the running time, and the static characteristic index and dynamic characteristic index are combined to evaluate the top level index. The weight of each top level index is determined based on the fuzzy theory.The comprehensive evaluation method of the operation quality of the smart meter is constructed by integrating the multi-source reliability information, and the operation state evaluation results and fault risk probability of the smart meter are given.The research results have reference value for the reliable and stable operation of smart grid, the construction of spot trading power market, the rotation and operation maintenance of smart electricity meters.\n


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