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Analysis of the association between scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2020

ZHONG Weiqi¹, ZHU Yuliang², SU Yi¹, BAI Jing¹, DONG Rui¹, ZHENG Xiaohua¹,XIE Pinghui¹,ZHANG Yuliang³

(1. Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030,China;2.Central People¬ðs Hospital of Zhanjiang, Zhanjiang 524045,Guangdong,China; 3. Infectious Disease Hospital of Heilongjiang Province , Harbin 150030,China)

Abstract:

The relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of scarlet fever in Heilongjiang Province was analyzed, and time series models were established, aiming at providing reference for formulating more scientific and effective scarlet fever prevention and control strategies in the future.The data of scarlet fever from 2010 to 2020 in Heilongjiang Province and the temperature and air pressure in the same period were collected, and the correlation degree and form of meteorological factors and scarlet fever were analyzed using generalized additive model. Results show that scarlet fever occurred annually and showed typical bimodal characteristics during April to May in spring and November to December in winter; Pvalues of average monthly air pressure, average monthly relative humidity, monthly sunshine hours, and average monthly wind speed were less than 0.05, indicating a statistical significance. Meanwhile, the RR(relative risk degree Risk Ratio) values were all less than 1, where the onset of scarlet fever was negatively associated with the four meteorological factors. Scarlet fever incidence in Heilongjiang Province, mainly in winter, decreases with the increase in average monthly relative humidity, monthly sunshine hours, average monthly wind speed, and average monthly air pressure.

Key words:  Scarlet fever  Meteorological Factors  Generalized additive model  Relationship