摘要:为提高育种杂交后代选择效果，引入压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型对影响寒地粳稻杂交育种后代的遗传、环境和选择因素进行探讨。构建1个目标、3个准则和18个指标组成的寒地粳稻杂交育种后代选择概念模型与评价体系，并采用客观熵权和功效评分相组合方法进行综合指数评价。结果表明：在PSR模型设计环境下，‘绥粳18’杂交育种9个世代杂交后代均表现出穗颈瘟权重值最大，其次是倒伏级别，再次是空壳率，寒地生态环境下抗穗颈瘟发病指数、抗倒伏级别和空壳率水平是水稻育种杂交后代选择最重要的考虑指标。PSR系统评价中，各子系统的影响力大小依次是响应子系统（权重为0.6867）>状态子系统（权重为0.2651）>压力子系统（权重为0.0482）；各指标值变异系数为0~200.4%，大范围变异利于提高后代选择育种效果。与目前多依据株型理论选择杂交后代系谱相比，运用PSR模型理论与评价体系方法，创建动态压力选择环境，客观评价指标特征，并引入专家决策管理，能够有效克服单纯依靠育种经验、定性定量不结合、多注重性状选择以及响应决策不系统而导致多优性状聚合难、鉴定难、选择效率低等问题，具有较好可行性、可靠性和实用性，可以获得更加合理的寒地水稻育种杂交后代选择方案。本研究结果可为加快寒地优质高产多抗广适突破性水稻新品种选育提供有益参考和技术依据。
关键词:寒地粳稻/
杂交后代/
压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型/
熵权/
选择概念模型
Abstract:To improve the breeding of hybrid offspring, a stress-state-response (PSR) model was used to investigate the genetic, environmental, and selection factors affecting the progeny of japonica hybrid rice in cold regions. A conceptual model and evaluation system for the selection of progeny of japonica hybrid breeding in cold regions with 1 target, 3 criteria, and 18 indices was constructed, and the objective entropy weight and efficacy score were used to evaluate the comprehensive index. The results indicated that nine generations of hybrid offspring of 'Suijing 18' crossbreeding showed the highest weight of neck blast, followed by lodging level, and the lowest was seed setting rate. The indices of resistance to panicle blast, lodging level, and percentage of empty shell were the most important factors for selecting hybrid progenies in cold regions. In the PSR system evaluations, the order of influence was the response subsystem (0.6867) > the state subsystem (0.2651) > the pressure subsystem (0.0482). Meanwhile, the coefficient of variation of the index values ranged from 0 to 200.4%, which was beneficial for enhancing the breeding efficiency of progeny selection through a wide range of variation. The response, stress, and state subsystems were related. Dynamic changes in the environmental pressure conditions represented an important factor to promote changes in the response and state subsystems. The weight analysis of hybrid progeny showed that the order of influence of environmental pressure was neck blast > irrigation water temperature > planting density > fertilizer application. Compared with the current plant-type improvement theory and methods for hybrid offspring character selection, applying the PSR hybrid progeny selection theory and methods on rice breeding in cold regions effectively overcame the problems of multi-optimal trait aggregation, identification, and low selection efficiency due to the lack of breeding experience, qualitative and quantitative combinations, more emphasis on trait selection, and poor response decision making. Systematic, dynamic, and objective scientific planning, with accurate and efficient design, evaluation, and decision-making was realized by PSR, which was concise, practical, efficient, and operational. According to the ecological characteristics of rice farming in cold regions, the variety selection based on natural conditions in different regions differed. The state and response indices in the evaluation system should be adjusted when the theory and method presented here are used to select the hybrid offspring of rice. These principles and methods can also be used in soybean, corn, and other crops, all of which require further exploration. The results of this study provide a useful reference and technical basis for accelerating the breeding of new rice varieties with high quality, high yield, multi-resistance, and wide adaptability in cold regions.
Key words:Japonica rice in cold region/
Hybrid offspring/
Pressure-state-response model/
Entropy weight/
Conseptual selection model
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