摘要:华北平原是我国的粮食主产区，为探讨气候变化可能对该地区粮食产量产生的影响，本文以中国科学院青藏高原研究所的中国区域地面气象要素数据集为基础，对作物生长模型WOFOST（WOrld FOod STudy）进行面域化，模拟华北平原1979—2015年夏玉米的生长情况；利用一元线性回归、经验正交分解（EOF）分析了华北平原夏玉米潜在产量的时空变化，利用逐个栅格相关性分析、奇异值分解（SVD）分析了华北平原不同区域夏玉米潜在产量与全生育期、吐丝前和吐丝后平均温度及日均太阳总辐射的相关性。结果表明，研究区夏玉米潜在产量大致呈现从南向北逐渐升高的特点，大部分地区夏玉米潜在产量为7 000~9 000 kg·hm-2；研究区西北部夏玉米潜在产量波动较大，波动较小的地区在北京南部、天津以及河北中部一带，标准差在500 kg·hm-2以下；研究区西北部及河北唐山北部以及山东半岛东部夏玉米潜在产量呈上升趋势，这些地区的夏玉米潜在产量上升幅度大部分在200~600 kg·hm-2·（10a）-1；研究区的其余大部分地区夏玉米潜在产量呈下降趋势，其中河北中南部、天津、鲁西北以及皖北的部分区域下降较明显，变化幅度在-250 kg·hm-2·（10a）-1左右。河北西部和东北部、北京西北部以及山东中部和东部等地区的夏玉米潜在产量与气温具有较显著的相关关系，相关系数在0.9以上，这些地区的夏玉米潜在产量在过去37年呈上升趋势，表明这些地区夏玉米潜在产量的增加可能是由气温上升导致的。北京东部和南部、天津、河北中南部及秦皇岛唐山南部、山东、河南东部、皖北和苏北等地区的夏玉米潜在产量与太阳总辐射具有较好的相关关系，相关系数在0.8左右，其中，吐丝后通过显著性检验的区域较吐丝前大，相关系数也较吐丝前大，该区域大部分地区夏玉米潜在产量呈下降趋势，可能是由该区域太阳总辐射下降导致的，且总辐射的下降主要对夏玉米的生殖生长阶段构成影响。总的来说，研究区夏玉米潜在产量上升的区域与温度的上升有关，温度的变化是这些地区夏玉米潜在产量变化的主导因子；研究区夏玉米潜在产量下降的区域与太阳总辐射的下降有关，太阳总辐射的变化是这些地区夏玉米潜在产量变化的主导因子。因此，气候变化背景下针对华北平原不同地区制定不同的合理应对措施显得尤为重要。
关键词:气候变化/
华北平原/
夏玉米潜在产量/
WOFOST模型/
温度/
太阳总辐射
Abstract:The North China Plain is a major food producing region in China and climate change could have beneficial or unbeneficial effects on food production in the region. To accurately assess the effect of climate change on potential yield of summer maize in different regions in the North China Plain, we simulated the growth of summer maize in the plain for the period 1979-2015 using regional implementation crop growth model WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudy). We also used China Meteorological Forcing Data (form the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research of Chinese Academy of Science) as weather data input for the crop growth model. To analyze the spatial and temporal variations in potential summer maize yield in the North China Plain, simple linear regression and empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF) methods were applied. Using grid-by-grid correlation analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD) methods, we analyzed the correlations between potential summer maize yield and temperature and the correlations between the potential summer maize yield and total daily solar radiation during the whole growth period, pre-silking stage and post-silking stage of maize. The results showed that potential summer maize yield generally increased from south to north in the range of 7 000-9 000 kg·hm-2. While potential summer maize yield in the northwest part of the study area was more volatile, yield fluctuation was small in southern Beijing, Tianjin and central Hebei Province, with standard deviation less than 500 kg·hm-2. Potential summer maize yield in northern Tangshan of Hebei Province, northwestern part of the study area and the eastern part of Shandong Peninsula had a fluctuating increasing trend for the study period, with a range of 200-600 kg·hm-2·(10a)-1 in most of these regions. Potential summer maize yield in the rest of the study area decreased, especially in central and southern Hebei Province, Tianjin, northwestern Shandong Province, northern Anhui Province, which was around 250 kg·hm-2·(10a)-1. Potential summer maize yield in western and northeastern parts of Hebei Province, northwestern part of Beijing and central and eastern parts of Shandong Province had a significant positive correlation (R=0.9) with temperature. Summer maize yield in these areas had increased over the past 37 years. The analysis suggested that the increase in summer maize yield in those places were driven by rising temperatures. Potential yield in southern and eastern parts of Beijing, Tianjin, central and southern parts of Hebei Province, southern parts of Tangshan and Qinhuangdao of Hebei Province, Shandong Province, eastern part of Henan Province, northern part of Anhui Province and northern part of Jiangsu Province had a significant positive correlation (R=0.8) with total solar radiation. At the same time, the shaded area of 99% confidence level (based on Student's t-test) for the post-silking stage was larger than that for the pre-silking stage. Also the correlation coefficients were more significant for the post-silking stage. Potential summer maize yield in most of these regions was on the decline, which was caused by the decline in total solar radiation in the regions. Furthermore, total radiation reduction mainly influenced the reproductive stage of summer maize. In conclusion, increase in temperature was the main factor driving the increase in potential summer maize yield. Also the decreasing total solar radiation was the main factor driving the decrease in potential summer yield in the North China Plain.
Key words:Climate change/
North China Plain/
Potential summer maize yield/
WOFOST model/
Temperature/
Total solar radiation
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