摘要:各种产量差的分析可以揭示产量的提升空间及研究区域内各种限制因子对产量提高的限制作用。为研究气候变化背景下，各气候要素对冬小麦产量差的影响，本文以河南省为研究区域并划分为5个类型区（Ⅰ，豫北种植区；Ⅱ，豫东种植区；Ⅲ，浅山丘陵盆地种植区；Ⅳ，淮北平原、南阳盆地种植区；Ⅴ，豫南稻茬麦区）利用14个气象站点的资料，运用AEZ模型计算得到1961-2013年该省的冬小麦生产潜力，再根据产量差法计算得到YG1-2（光合生产潜力与光温生产潜力的差距）、YG2-3（光温生产潜力与气候生产潜力的差距）以及YG2-a（光温生产潜力与大田平均产量的差距）3个水平的产量差。研究结果表明，1961-2013年河南省冬小麦光合生产潜力下降，光温生产潜力提高，气候生产潜力基本不变。对大田平均产量的分析表明，14个站点平均产量存在较大差异，冬小麦产量总体逐渐增长。从时间变化上看，河南省冬小麦YG1-2总体呈现出递减趋势；YG2-3差距呈现出"Ⅴ型"，谷值在1981-1990年；Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅴ区YG2-a呈现递减趋势，而Ⅲ和Ⅳ区则呈现先增加再减少的趋势。从空间变化上看，河南省冬小麦YG1-2和YG2-3自北向南递减，而YG2-a自东向西递增。各区域冬小麦增产潜力的排序为：Ⅲ区> Ⅴ区> Ⅳ区> Ⅱ区> Ⅰ区。农学因素是限制当地冬小麦产量差缩小的主要因素，通过改善农学因素，如：改良更新冬小麦品种、提升现代农业生产技术、合理使用农药化肥、合理布局优质小麦区域等，可缩小该区域冬小麦产量差距。
关键词:冬小麦/
AEZ模型/
光合生产潜力/
光温生产潜力/
气候生产潜力/
产量差/
增产潜力/
农学因素
Abstract:Global climate change has become one of the most severe environmental problems facing human society. Agriculture is among the sectors with the most sensitive response to climate change. The analysis of yield gaps could reveal the factors limiting the growth and production of crops in various regions. Henan Province is the most important commodity grain base in China, with rich climatic resources and remarkable climate change. Analysis of yield gaps and change trend of winter wheat yield in Henan Province are critical for understanding the impact of climate change on the potential productivity of winter wheat in the province. It also can be used to draw on advantages and avoid disadvantages of climatic change, making full and rational use of climatic resources of winter wheat. Current researches on the impact of climate change on crop yield gaps have often focused on large-scale analysis, few people divided the study area into small pieces. To improve the accuracy of simulated effects of climate change, Henan was divided into five planting areas, which were northern Henan planting area (Ⅰ), eastern Henan planting area (Ⅱ), shallow mountain hilly basin planting area (Ⅲ), Huaibei Plain and Nanyang Basin planting area (Ⅳ) and southern Henan planting area (Ⅴ). Data obtained from 14 meteorological stations were used in AEZ model to simulate potential productivities of winter wheat for 1961-2013 in Henan Province. Then yield gaps were calculated, which were gap between photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity (YG1-2), gap between light-temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity (YG2-3) and gap between light-temperature potential productivity and average field yield (YG2-a). The results showed that photosynthetic potential productivity of winter wheat in Henan Province decreased in 1961-2013. The light-temperature potential productivity increased and climate potential productivity remained basically unchanged. Analysis of average field yield showed significant differences in average outputs at 14 meteorological stations and the trend in winter wheat output gradually increased. YG1-2 of winter wheat decreased, while YG2-3 followed a Ⅴ-shaped trend with the valley occurring in 1981-1990. YG2-a in Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅴ areas had a decreasing trend, while that in Ⅲ and Ⅳ areas initially increased and then decreased. In terms of spatial change, YG1-2 and YG2-3 of winter wheat declined from north to south, while YG2-a increased from east to west in Henan Province. The order of yield increase potential of winter wheat for each area was Ⅲ > Ⅴ > Ⅳ > Ⅱ > Ⅰ. Agronomic conditions were the main factors driving the dwindling gaps in winter wheat yield in Henan Province. By improving agronomic conditions (e.g., varieties, modern agricultural technology, reasonable pesticide and fertilizer use, and rational arrangement of high-quality regions), it was possible to reduce the gaps in winter wheat yield in the study area.
Key words:Winter wheat/
AEZ model/
Photosynthetic potential productivity/
Light-temperature potential productivity/
Climate potential productivity/
Yield gap/
Production increasing potential/
Agronomic factors
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