中文关键词排放标准火电行业减排潜力碳达峰与碳中和情景分析 英文关键词emission standardthermal power industryemission reduction potentialcarbon peaking and carbon neutralizationscenario analysis

作者	单位	E-mail
李辉	国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031 国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司, 南京 210023	lihui850627@126.com
孙雪丽	国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司, 南京 210023
庞博	中国气象局科技与气候变化司, 北京 100081
朱法华	国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031 国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司, 南京 210023
王圣	国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031
晏培	湖南中环领航环保科技有限公司, 长沙 410011

中文摘要 从我国"十四五"及2035年远景目标经济发展预测出发，结合碳减排战略目标下的既有与强化政策情景，基于弹性系数法预测电力需求，测算在不同污染物排放标准约束情景下火电大气污染物排放情况及减排潜力，结果表明，在不同的政策和排放标准约束情景下，我国火电行业烟尘、SO₂和NO_x排放水平变化呈现出不同的趋势，到2035年，在2016年水平上的减排潜力分别在45.97%~85.37%、52.61%~84.90%和33.80%~71.08%之间，来自碳减排目标下政策因素带来的减排潜力，较不同污染物排放标准约束条件带来的减排潜力更为明显，在强化政策情景下，采取保持模式标准约束的污染物减排潜力已与超低模式基本相当，甚至超过或接近既有政策下采取收严模式标准约束的效果，通过强化实施能源和电力优化政策，加快实现火电发电量达峰，合理引导高污染排放水平火电机组优先退出生产，同样可使火电大气污染物排放得到有效控制，还可避免环保改造投资的浪费和损失. 英文摘要 Based on the economic development forecast of China's "14^th five year plan" and 2035 long-term goals, combined with the existing and strengthened policy scenarios under the strategic goal of carbon emission reduction, the power demand was predicted based on the elastic coefficient method, and the pollutant emission situation and emission reduction potential of the thermal power industry were calculated according to the development trend of pollutant emission standards. The results indicated that under different policy scenarios and emission standards, the emission levels of PM, SO₂, and NO_x in China's thermal power industry show different trends; by 2035, the emission reduction potential at the 2016 level is predicted to be 45.97%-85.37%, 52.61%-84.90%, and 33.80%-71.08%, respectively. The emission reduction potential brought about by policy factors under carbon emission reduction targets is more apparent than that brought about by different emission standards. Under the strengthened policy scenario, the pollutant emission reduction potential of the maintaining model standard constraint scenario is essentially equal to that of the ultra-low model, even more than or close to the effect of the tightening model standard constraint scenario under the existing policy. By strengthening the implementation of energy and power development policies, speeding up the peak of thermal power generation, and reasonably guiding thermal power units with high pollution emission levels to withdraw from production, the air pollutant emission of thermal power can also be effectively controlled, and the waste and loss of environmental protection transformation investment can be avoided.

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