中文关键词
污染天气分析垂直扩散指标大气稳定度天津数值模拟 | 英文关键词pollution weather analysisvertical diffusion indexatmospheric stabilityTianjinnumerical simulation |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于255 m气象塔风、温和PM2.5质量浓度数据获取天津地区大气稳定度特征，利用中尺度大气化学模式构建垂直扩散指数β和φ，开展天津地区污染天气预报中垂直扩散分析方法的研究，以期提高天津地区重污染天气预报预警准确率.结果表明，综合运用大气稳定度、基于边界层平均PM2.5质量浓度与近地面PM2.5质量浓度比值构建的垂直扩散指数β，基于数值模式chemdiag功能（以CO为示踪物）构建的垂直扩散指数φ，可以在污染天气预报中较好的进行大气污染物垂直扩散能力分析.当07：00~08：00和18：00~20：00大气稳定度为D及以上时，相比大气稳定为C及以下时，出现重污染天气的概率成10倍的增加；使用垂直扩散指数β和风速双重指标判断重污染天气，比单一的风速指标判断准确率提升67%；垂直扩散指数φ与近地面PM2.5质量浓度相关系数达到0.8，当垂直扩散指数φ小于0.52时，重污染天气概率75%，可识别59%的重污染天气. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on temperature and wind speed data from the 255 meter tall meteorological tower, the characteristics of atmospheric stability were analyzed in Tianjin, with the vertical diffusion index β and φ constructed by atmospheric chemical models. This provided information to use the vertical dispersion analysis method to forecast pollution from weather data. The results show that the comprehensive use of atmospheric stability and the vertical diffusion index can provide a better pollution forecast. When the atmospheric stability was D from 07:00-08:00 and 18:00-20:00, compared to when atmospheric stability was C, the probability of heavy pollution weather increased by 10 times. If the vertical diffusion index β and wind speed index were used to forecast heavy pollution, the accuracy rate was 67% higher than when using the single wind speed index. The coefficient between vertical diffusion index φ and PM2.5 mass concentration was 0.8.When the vertical diffusion index φ was less than 0.52, the probability of heavy pollution was 75%, identifying 59% of heavy pollution events. |
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