摘要:碳排放和减碳经济代价研究日益受到学术界和决策者的关注，中国政府做出的关于争取在2060年前实现碳中和的表态引起了国际社会的热议。在此背景下，开展中国未来长时间序列碳排放的情景预测具有切实意义。基于可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）评估了人口、经济和受教育程度对碳排放的影响，对比历史数据并验证了碳排放预测模型的准确性，结合共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景的设定和模型参数，预测了5种情景下中国2020年至2100年的碳排放轨迹及经济代价。结果表明：（1）考虑碳排放达峰目标的实现，SSP3情景是中国未来发展的最佳情景，在此情景下，中国有望提前三年实现碳排放达峰目标；（2） SSP3情景可使中国年度总碳排放量和人均碳排放量处于相对其他四种情景的最低值，但需要付出累积GDP下降5.49%至8.80%的代价；（3）为完成在2060年前实现碳中和的承诺，中国政府在未来的40年需面对409.36-467.42 Gt的碳中和量；（4）2020年中国的碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降40.52%至41.39%，2030年碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降59.64%至60.75%。5种情境中，SSP5情景是降低碳排放强度的最佳情景，可最大程度地超额实现碳排放强度目标。未来，受经济发展、人口增长等重要因素影响，中国政府减碳压力将进一步加大。后疫情时代，考虑到能源供应的减少和高科技产业的发展，碳排放社会成本的上升将为中国创造一个使能源系统脱碳的机遇。中国应在"十四五"期间继续提升能源利用效率、升级产业结构、提倡低碳消费、实施隐含碳战略，以尽快实现碳减排目标。



Abstract:Research on CO₂ emissions and the economic cost of carbon reduction has received increasing attention from academics and policy makers. The Chinese government's statement on striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 has aroused the heated discussions in the international community. In this context, it is of practical significance to predict China's future long-term CO₂ emissions scenarios. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, this paper evaluates the impacts of population, economy, and education on CO₂ emissions and verifies the accuracy of the CO₂ emission prediction model by comparing with historical data. Combined with the settings and model parameters of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, this paper predicts China's CO₂ emission trajectory and economic costs from 2020 to 2100 under five scenarios. The results show that:(1) considering the realization of the goal of reaching the peak of CO₂ emissions, the SSP3 scenario is the best scenario for China's future development. Under this scenario, China is expected to achieve the goal of reaching the peak of CO₂ emissions three years ahead of schedule. (2) The SSP3 scenario can keep China's annual total CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions at the lowest levels relative to the other four scenarios, but at the cost of a cumulative GDP reduction of 5.49% to 8.80%. (3) To fulfill the commitment to achieve CO₂ emission neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government will need to face a CO₂ neutralization amount of 409.36 to 467.42 Gt over the next 40 years. (4) China's CO₂ emission intensity in 2020 will be 40.52% to 41.39% lower than the 2005 level, and the CO₂ emission intensity in 2030 will be 59.64% to 60.75% lower than the 2005 level. Among the five scenarios, the SSP5 scenario is the best scenario for reducing the CO₂ emission intensity, which can exceed the CO₂ emission intensity target to the maximum extent. In the future, the pressure of the Chinese government to reduce CO₂ emission will further increase which is affected by important factors such as economic development and population growth. In the post-epidemic era, considering the reduction of energy supply and the development of high-tech industry, the rising social cost of CO₂ emissions will create an opportunity for China to decarbonize the energy system. China should continue to improve energy efficiency, upgrade industrial structure, promote low-carbon consumption and implement implied carbon strategy during the 14th five-year Plan period, so as to achieve the CO₂ reduction target as soon as possible.





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