摘要:社会经济发展与当地自然生态环境保护之间的耦合协调是可持续发展研究的热点问题。本研究以甘肃省为研究对象，构建甘肃省自然生态系统与社会经济系统耦合协调度模型及综合评价指标体系，分析甘肃省2007-2017年间社会经济发展与自然生态环境质量变化之间的耦合协调程度及演变过程。结果表明：（1）甘肃省的自然环境质量指数在2007-2017年间呈先波动下降后逐步上升的变化趋势，而甘肃省社会经济发展水平自然环境系统的综合水平在2007-2017年间整体呈现上升趋势；（2）2007-2017年，甘肃省的社会经济与自然生态环境质量的发展状态从失调阶段逐步过渡到协调阶段，说明这社会经济系统与自然生态环境系统的耦合过程正从磨合阶段向着高水平有序状态稳固发展，10年间甘肃省生态环境与社会经济发展的耦合协调性有明显改善。面向自然生态环境质量与社会经济发展速度的动态讨论可以看出：（1）甘肃省自然环境和社会经济变化速率的剪刀差的演变过程经过了差异较大但无明显制约-社会经济对生态环境压力逐步加重-社会经济发展与生态支撑能力同步回升的演变过程；（2）2007-2014年，甘肃省处于自然生态环境的发展速度小于社会经济的发展速度阶段，社会经济发展受生态环境的限制和约束，经济发展对生态环境的影响也几乎为零，但其相互胁迫程度不断增加，到2015-2017年，自然生态环境的发展速度大于社会经济的发展速度，2015-2017年自然生态环境的增速高于社会经济发展速度，产业结构优化和自然生态环境保护措施开始起效，社会经济与自然生态环境之间的耦合协调度越来越好。



Abstract:The coupling coordination between social economic development and local natural ecological environment protection is a hot topic in sustainable development research. Taking Gansu Province as the research area, this study constructed the coupling coordination degree model and comprehensive evaluation index system of natural ecosystem and social economic system in Gansu Province, and analyzed the coupling coordination degree and evolution process between social and economic development and the change of natural ecological environment quality in Gansu Province from 2007 to 2017. The results show that, (1) From 2007 to 2017, the natural environment quality index of Gansu province fluctuated first and then gradually increased, while the comprehensive level of the natural environment system of Gansu province's social and economic development showed an overall rising trend. (2) The state of the development of social economy and natural ecological environment quality from disorder stage gradually transition to the coordination stage, the social economic system and natural ecological environment system of the coupling process is from the running-in stage to stable development of high order, 10 years of ecological environment and social economic development in Gansu Province coupling coordination has improved significantly. It can be seen from the dynamic discussion of natural ecological environment quality and social and economic development speed, (1) the evolution process of scissors difference of natural environment and social and economic change rate in Gansu Province has gone through the evolution process of great difference but no obvious restriction——the pressure of social economy on ecological environment is increasing gradually——the development of social economy and ecological support ability rise simultaneously. (2) From 2007 to 2014, Gansu Province was at a stage where the development speed of the natural ecological environment was lower than that of the social economy. The social and economic development was restricted and restrained by the ecological environment, and the impact of economic development on the ecological environment was almost zero, however, the degree of mutual stress was increasing. From 2015 to 2017, the development rate of natural ecological environment will be faster than that of social economy, the growth rate of natural ecological environment was higher than that of social and economic development, industrial structure optimization and natural ecological environment protection measures began to take effect, and the degree of coupling and coordination between social economy and natural ecological environment became better and better.





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