摘要:设立雄安新区是千年大计、国家大事。明晰生态系统服务需求的空间分布及时间变化趋势，有助于探究雄安新区生态系统服务对社会经济发展的促进和制约作用，支持生态系统服务管理和政策的执行。在已有对单一时间维度的生态系统服务研究基础上，增加了对时空变异性的关注，对雄安新区未来时间节点生态系统服务需求的时空分布特征进行预测，首先选取土地利用开发程度、人口密度、经济密度3个指标建立了生态系统服务需求预测模型，然后根据综合增长率法和地区类比法预测土地利用格局、人口密度和经济密度，最后叠加分析得到雄安新区2035年和2050年生态系统服务需求空间分布格局。预测结果表明，2035年起步区人口密度和经济密度将大幅增加，进而带动生态系统服务需求的增加；本世纪中叶，新区人口密度和经济密度的绝对值将大幅度提高，生态系统服务需求高值区主要集中在"一主、五辅"城区范围，与城乡空间布局相呼应。基于研究结果，提出优化土地利用结构、加强白洋淀保护与修复和建设宏观-中观-微观多尺度生态基础设施几条建议，以期为未来的生态系统服务供给、生态基础设施建设和城市规划布局等提供指导。



Abstract:The establishment of Xiong'an New Area is a national project of millennial significance. It is of great significance for the implementation of the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. It is intended to relieve Beijing of functions non-essential to its role as China's capital, optimize regional spatial patterns, and enhance ecosystem services and living environment in this urban agglomeration. Clarifying the spatial distribution and temporal variation trend of the demand for ecosystem services in Xiong'an New Area is helpful to explore the role of ecosystem services in promoting and restricting social and economic development, and to support the management of ecosystem services and policy implementation. Most previous studies on ecological system demand mainly focused on a single time dimension, spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem service demand is less considered. In this paper, spatial distribution pattern of ecosystem services demand in Xiong'an New Area was predicted. Firstly, three indicators of land use intensity, population density and economic density are selected to establish the predicting model. Secondly, the land use intensity, population density and economic density in Xiong'an New Area were predicted based on the comprehensive growth rate method and the regional analogy method. Finally, the demand for ecosystem services in Xiong'an New Area in 2035 and 2050 were predicted through layer- superposition analysis, and the spatial distribution pattern and temporal change trend were analyzed. The predicted results show that the demand for ecosystem services in Xiong'an New Area increases with the rapid development of the city. Its population change, economic growth and land development are closely related to the policy planning. The population density and economic density of the starting area will increase greatly in 2035, which will drive the increase of the demand for ecosystem services. In the middle of this century, the absolute value of population density and economic density will greatly improve, and the high demand for ecosystem services will be mainly concentrated in the urban area of "one main and five auxiliaries", corresponding to the urban and rural spatial layout. Based on the results, we suggest that the land use structure should be optimized, the protection and restoration of Baiyangdian should be strengthened, and macroscopic-mesoscopic-microscopic ecological infrastructure should be built, in order to guide the future ecosystem services supply, ecological infrastructure construction and urban planning layout.





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