摘要:农业系统可持续协调发展作为一种发展理念已成为共识，受到我国政府高度重视。采用2004-2015年我国农业生产面板数据，运用熵值法、探索性空间数据分析等方法分析我国农业系统可持续发展协调度情况。研究结果表明：（1）2004-2015年我国各省（市、自治区）农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度处于不稳定变动态势，且其协调度值较低。（2）从协调度分布来看，协调度处于"比较协调"和"协调"的省（市、自治区）主要分布在我国的东部和东南部地区，其余大多数省（市、自治区）农业各子系统可持续能力之间的协调度处于"不协调"。（3）从空间自相关性来看，各省（市、自治区）农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度呈正的全局自相关性且相关程度逐渐增大，而大多数省（市、自治区）农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度的局部自相关性不显著，且其农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度空间极化不明显，处于较低水平均衡状态。从时空维度、空间相关性方面分析农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度，为提高我国农业系统可持续发展水平提供政策建议。



Abstract:As a concept of development, the sustainable and coordinated development of agricultural system has become a consensus, which has been attached great importance by our government. Using the panel data of agricultural production in China from 2004 to 2015, this paper employs the entropy method and exploratory spatial data analysis to analyze the coordination degree of sustainable development of China's agricultural system. The results showed that (1) from 2004 to 2015, the coordination degree between the sustainability of agricultural subsystems in various provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China presented an unstable and dynamic trend, and its coordination value was low. (2) From the perspective of coordination degree distribution, the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) whose coordination degree was "comparatively coordinated" and "coordinated" were mainly distributed in the eastern and southeastern regions of China, while the coordination degrees among the agricultural subsystems of most other provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) were "uncoordinated". (3) From the perspective of spatial autocorrelation, the coordination degree between the sustainability of agricultural subsystems in each province (municipalities and autonomous region) had a positive whole autocorrelation and the degree of correlation gradually increase. In most of the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions), the local autocorrelation of the degree of coordination between system sustainability was not significant. The spatial polarization of the degree of coordination between the sustainability of agricultural subsystems was not obvious being at a lower level of equilibrium. This paper analyzes the coordination degree between the sustainability of agricultural subsystems from the perspective of spatio-temporal dimension and spatial correlation, and provides policy recommendations for improving the sustainable development level of the Chinese agricultural system.





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