摘要:欧亚大陆复杂多样的植被生态系统在全球气候变化的驱动下，其时空分布格局将发生系列的偏移变化，进而对欧亚大陆"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的生态环境产生重要影响。如何从全球气候变化驱动的角度来实现欧亚大陆植被生态系统时空偏移趋势的模拟分析，已成为"一带一路"沿线国家和地区生态环境研究的热点科学问题之一。在对HLZ生态系统模型进行改进和构建植被生态系统平均中心时空偏移分析模型的基础上，基于欧亚大陆的气候观测数据（1981-2010年）和CMIP5 RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景数据（2011-2100年），实现欧亚大陆植被生态系统平均中心时空偏移趋势的模拟分析。结果表明：欧亚大陆植被生态系统平均中心主要分布在欧亚大陆的中部和南部地区；3种气候情景下，欧亚大陆的亚热带干旱森林、暖温带湿润森林、亚热带有刺疏林、亚热带潮湿森林、冷温带潮湿森林、寒温带湿润森林、冷温带湿润森林、亚热带湿润森林、暖温带干旱森林、亚极地/高山湿润苔原和极地/冰原等植被生态系统的平均中心偏移幅度大于其他植被生态系统类型；欧亚大陆植被生态系统在RCP8.5情景下的植被生态系统平均中心偏移幅度大于其他两种情景；在2011-2100年期间，3种气候变化情景下，欧亚大陆植被生态系统平均中心整体上将呈向北偏移的变化趋势。



Abstract:Due to global climate change, the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems in Eurasia show a series of spatiotemporal shifts that directly influence the ecological environment in the countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) area. This research aims to analyze the spatiotemporal shift trends of vegetation ecosystems under climate change in Eurasia and obtain new data and theoretical support for BRI projects. The Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) model has been improved upon and the spatiotemporal shift model of the mean center was developed to quantitatively reveal the spatiotemporal shift trends of the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems in Eurasia. Based on the climatic observation data of Eurasia during the period from 1981 to 2010 and the climatic scenarios data during the period from 2011 to 2100 of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 released by CMIP5, the spatiotemporal shift trends of the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems were obtained. The results show that most mean centers in vegetation ecosystems are distributed in the central and south parts of Eurasia. The mean centers in subtropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest, subtropical thorn woodland, subtropical wet forest, cool temperate wet forest, cold temperate moist forest, cool temperate moist forest, subtropical moist forest, warm temperate dry forest, polar/nival area, and subpolar/alpine moist tundra would shift more than any other mean centers in vegetation ecosystems under the three scenarios in Eurasia. The mean centers in vegetation ecosystems under the RCP8.5 scenario would shift more than the other two scenarios in Eurasia. Climate change would greatly alter the distribution pattern of vegetation ecosystems and cause most of the mean centers in vegetation ecosystems to shift to the northern region of Eurasia from 2011 to 2100 under the three scenarios.





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