摘要:以赣江上游流域为研究对象，利用1995年、2005年、2015年的3期遥感影像，分析1995-2015年赣江上游流域的土地利用演变特征；基于景观扰动指数与景观脆弱指数构建土地利用生态风险模型；采用半变异分析、自相关分析等方法，研究了赣江上游流域土地利用风险时空变化与驱动力。结果表明：赣江上游流域城乡生活空间面积显著增加，从三生空间看，农业生产空间面积显著减少，土地利用类型由生态、生产空间向城乡生活空间转化，土地利用程度提高。1995-2015年期间土地利用生态风险逐渐上升，高-高型聚类多分布于章贡区、南康区、信丰县等附近，低-低型聚类多分布于安远县、全南县等附近，高风险区、较高面积逐渐扩大，低风险区、较低风险区面积逐渐缩小，引起土地利用类型变化的因素主要为总人口、公路里程、城镇化率等人为因素。研究结果可为区域生态安全格局构建、土地利用的优化布局提供借鉴。



Abstract:This study used remote sensing images from 1995, 2005, and 2015 to analyze the land use evolution characteristics of the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River Basin from 1995 to 2015 based on the landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility. The index constructs an ecological risk model for land use; semivariance analysis and autocorrelation analysis were utilized to study the temporal and spatial changes and driving forces of land use risk in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River Basin. The results show that the area of urban and rural living space in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River has increased significantly, and the agricultural production area has been significantly reduced. The type of land use has shifted from ecological and production space to urban and rural living space, and the degree of land use has increased. From 1995 to 2015, the ecological risk of land use increased gradually. The high-high clusters were mostly distributed in the vicinity of Zhanggong District, Nankang District, and Xinfeng County, etc. The low-low clusters were distributed in the vicinity of Anyuan County and Quannan County, etc. The high- and higher-risk areas gradually expanded, while the low- and lower-risk areas gradually narrowed. The factors that caused changes in land use types were primarily human factors such as total population, highway mileage, and urbanization rate. The results of this study can provide a reference point for the construction of regional ecological security patterns and the optimization of land use layout.





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