摘要:海洋强国战略以及蓝色农业计划的实施亟需加强海洋渔业可持续发展。以脆弱性为切入点，采用三轴图法剖析中国海洋渔业产业结构，从敏感性、应对能力两方面构建海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性指标体系，运用Topsis法和障碍度模型分析2001-2015年中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：①2001-2015年中国海洋渔业产业结构单一且长期处于初级阶段；②时间维度上，以2008年为节点中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性呈现由小幅波动向大幅提升转变的阶段性特征；③空间维度上，中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性空间分布呈现南高北低的集群化特点，依据系统脆弱性等级演变轨迹将中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性划分为"U"型、"线性上升"型、"波浪"型、"平稳"型脆弱性演化结构；④增强海洋渔业近海海域环境整改力度、优化海洋渔业产业结构、发展远洋渔业、加强海洋灾害预警、引进先进科技设备和优秀专业人才是降低中国海洋渔业产业生态系统脆弱性的有效措施。



Abstract:The implementation of maritime power strategies requires further enhancement of the development of marine fisheries economy. In this paper, using vulnerability as the breakthrough point, the marine fisheries industrial structure in China was analyzed using a 3-axis graph. The vulnerability index system of the marine fisheries industry from two aspects, sensitivity and response capacity were constructed. Then, temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the marine fisheries industry ecosystem vulnerability in China during 2001-2015 was analyzed using the Topsis method and the obstacle degree. The results showed that:① During 2001-2015, the marine fisheries industrial structure in China was single and in the primary stage for a long period. ② In the time dimension, using 2008 as a node, the vulnerability of China's marine fisheries industry ecosystem exhibited a phased transition from a small fluctuation to a large increase. ③ Regarding the spatial dimension, the spatial distribution of the marine fisheries industry vulnerability in China exhibited clustering characteristics, being high in the south and low in the north according to the evolvement trajectory of system vulnerability. The industry ecosystem vulnerability of marine fisheries in China was divided into "U"type,"liner rise"type,"wave"type, and"stable"type of vulnerability evolution structure. ④Through the analysis of the obstacle degree of the system,it was found that strengthening the environmental rectification of the coastal waters on marine fisheries, optimizing the marine fisheries industrial structure, further promoting the development of the pelagic fishery, strengthening the early warning signals of marine disasters, and introducing advanced scientific, technological equipment, and qualified professionals would reduce the marine fisheries industry ecosystem vulnerability in China.





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