摘要:长江中游城市群是我国的典型生态敏感区和重点开发区，科学评价其生态承载力具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。从城市生态系统的组成要素、结构特征出发，选择状态空间法从社会经济协调力、资源环境支撑力和生态弹性力3个维度构建了城市生态承载力综合评价指标体系，综合运用空间分析、多元回归、地理加权回归等方法深入分析了2006-2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力时空格局及其影响因素。结果表明：①2006-2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力指数总体呈波动上升的"W"型走势，社会经济协调力维度呈波动下降的趋势，而资源环境支撑力和生态弹性力维度整体呈波动上升的趋势；②从空间格局来看，2006-2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力表现出显著的空间关联性与异质性，环洞庭湖地区和环鄱阳湖城市群地区形成两大高值集聚区，而在武汉城市圈和环长株潭城市群核心区域形成两大低值集聚区；③社会发展水平、城镇居民收入水平、人口密度、经济发展效率、资源供给状况和环境污染治理水平等要素对长江中游城市群城市生态承载力空间分异格局的影响较为显著，影响强度具有空间异质性特征。



Abstract:The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is within a typical ecologically sensitive area as well as a key development area in China. Scientific assessment of its ecological carrying capacity has important scientific value and practical significance. On the basis of both the components and structural characteristics of urban ecosystems, in this study, we used state-space techniques to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the urban ecosystem carrying capacity from three dimensions:socio-economic coordination, resource and environmental supply, and ecological elasticity. Spatial analysis, multiple regression, and geographically weighted regression were used to analyze the temporal-spatial patterns and other factors influencing the urban ecosystem carrying capacity in an urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2006 to 2015. The results indicated that:(1) the urban ecosystem carrying capacity of study area presents a W-shaped fluctuating increasing trend. The dimension of socio-economic coordination follows a fluctuating decreasing tendency, while the dimensions of resource and environment supply and ecological elasticity are increasing with fluctuations. (2) With regard to the perspective of spatial patterns, the urban ecosystem carrying capacity of study area is characterized by an obvious space correlation and heterogeneity. Two hot spots formed in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration and the area around the Dongting Lake, and two cold zones formed in the core area of the Wuhan urban agglomeration and the urban agglomeration around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan. (3) The factors of social development level, income level of urban inhabitants, population density, economic development efficiency, resource supply level, and environmental pollution control level exert significant effects on the spatial differentiation pattern of the urban ecosystem carrying capacity in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the intensity shows a spatial heterogeneity characteristic.





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