摘要:生态足迹与脱钩效应分析是衡量地区可持续发展状态的一种有效工具。以快速城镇化的科教名城合肥市为例，利用生态足迹法和脱钩效应分析对2000-2014年合肥市生态足迹与脱钩状态进行定量研究与动态分析，建立GM（1，1）模型对2015-2020年合肥市生态状况进行预测。结果显示：2000-2014年间，合肥市人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力波动上升且幅度较大，生态赤字波动较小，整体略有上升。从结构上看，化石燃料的生态足迹近年来比重较大。从空间上看，生态足迹与承载力均表现出中心区低，郊区高的特征。在环境压力与经济增长的脱钩关系中，强脱钩与弱脱钩出现的频率分别为：42.9%，28.6%。灰色预测结果表明，2015-2020年合肥市人均生态足迹呈上升趋势，生态足迹与GDP增长呈持续弱脱钩的状态，脱钩指数较小且趋于稳定。研究对优化合肥市产业结构、实行有差别的土地利用方式与国土优化格局，适度控制人口增长具有重要的参考意义。



Abstract:The methods of ecological footprint and decoupling effect analysis are effective tools for measuring the status of sustainable development in a region. Taking Hefei as an example of rapid development of urbanization, this article applied the analysis of an ecological footprint and decoupling effect to conduct the quantitative research and dynamic analysis of the ecological status from 2000 to 2014. Additionally, the GM (1, 1) model was established to predict the ecological status of Hefei from 2015 to 2020. The results show that from 2000 to 2014, the per capita ecological footprint of Hefei and the per capita ecological carrying capacity fluctuated. The fluctuation of the ecological deficit was small and increased slightly in general. The ecological footprint of fossil fuels was relatively large in recent years. The space distribution of the ecological footprint and carrying capacity is low in the urban district and high in the suburban district. In the decoupling relationship between environmental pressure and economic growth, the frequencies of strong decoupling and weak decoupling were 42.9% and 28.6%, respectively. The grey model predicts that the per capita ecological footprint from 2015 to 2020 will also increase. This finding is significant for optimizing the industrial structure of Hefei City, implementing different land use patterns, upgrading land patterns, and for controlling population growth moderately.





PDF全文下载地址:

https://www.ecologica.cn/stxb/article/pdf/stxb201710251911