李程程,
李兆焱,
袁晓铭^,
中国地震局工程力学研究所, 中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150080

基金项目: 中央级公益性研究所基本科研业务费专项（2018A01），黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目（LH2019E100），政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项（2016YFE0105500）和国家自然科学基金青年基金项目（51508532）联合资助


详细信息

作者简介: 李程程, 女, 1987年生, 助理研究员, 博士, 主要从事岩土地震工程防灾减灾研究.E-mail:lichengcheng113@126.com

通讯作者: 袁晓铭, 男, 1963年生, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事土动力学和岩土地震工程研究.E-mail:yxmiem@163.com

中图分类号: P315,P631

收稿日期:2019-02-13
修回日期:2020-03-30
上线日期:2020-05-05

Simplified prediction method for regional seismic soil liquefaction

LI ChengCheng,
LI ZhaoYan,
YUAN XiaoMing^,
Institution of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration of China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China



More Information

Corresponding author: YUAN XiaoMing,E-mail:yxmiem@163.com

MSC: P315,P631

--> Received Date: 13 February 2019
Revised Date: 30 March 2020
Available Online: 05 May 2020


摘要
摘要:利用可大范围获取的空间参数给出区域土壤液化的评估方法，可预估震前各地区土壤液化可能性，可快速评估震后震区土壤液化情况，对预防减轻地震灾害以及地震快速响应救援都具有重要意义的.本文以我国1976唐山大地震液化调查资料为背景，提出了区域土壤液化预测的四参数简化评估方法，并用2011年新西兰基督城地震进行了检验.选取场地平均剪切波速V_s30、复合地形指数CTI、场地到河流的距离DR以及地面峰值加速度PGA，分别代表土壤密实程度、饱水状态、地质年代和遭遇的地震作用大小，并基于我国唐山地震液化区域调查资料生成的样本，运用经典二元Logistic回归方法，建立了区域土壤液化预测模型和评估公式，回归检验结果良好，整体回判成功率为77%，非液化和液化区域成功率分别为73%和78%.将公式应用于评估2011年新西兰基督城地震液化情况，区域液化和非液化成功率分别为82%和88%，总体成功率为84%.以上结果表明本文模型可靠，方法正确，可用于区域土壤液化震前预估以及土壤液化震后快速评估.
关键词: 液化预测/
简化方法/
区划/
震后快速评估

Abstract:It is possible to model regional liquefaction extent based on broadly available geospatial variables, which permits to predict regional soil liquefaction possibility before earthquakes or rapid assessment of post-earthquake soil liquefaction, which will aids in preventing or relieving seismic hazard and quick-response for the emergency rescue. In this work, we proposed a novel simplified four-parameter prediction method of regional seismic soil liquefaction based on data of the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake and tested it by the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand. The four parameters in this method includes the mean value of shear-wave velocity V_s30 for soil compactness, compound topographic index CTI for water-saturated state, the distance to river DR for geologic age, and PGA for bearing seismic action. The prediction model and evaluate formula for regional seismic soil liquefaction were established using the two-dimensional classical logistic regression based on samples from surveys to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, and yielded satisfactory results. The overall regression successful rate is 77%, 73% for non-liquefaction and 78% for liquefaction areas, respectively. The proposed model was applied to the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Consequently, the overall regional regression successful rate is 84%, 82% for non-liquefaction and 84% for liquefaction areas, respectively. These test results show that the model is reliable and the accuracy of the prediction is high, and can be used in prediction of regional pre-seismic soil liquefaction and rapid assessment of post- earthquake soil liquefaction.
Key words:Liquefaction prediction/
Simplified method/
Zonation/
Post-seismic rapid response



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