李昌珑^1,2,,
吴健^1,2,
徐伟进^1,2,
高孟潭^1,2
1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081
2. 中国地震风险与保险实验室, 北京 100081

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2017YFC1500405），中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务专项（DQJB17T04，DQJB16B19）资助


详细信息

作者简介: 李昌珑, 男, 1989年生, 中国地震局地球物理研究所助理研究员, 从事地震构造和地震区划研究.E-mail:changlongli@163.com

中图分类号: P315

收稿日期:2016-12-30
修回日期:2018-04-10
上线日期:2018-06-05

Study on seismic hazard of major earthquakes around Ordos Block in the next 30 years based on fault activity data

LI ChangLong^1,2,,
WU Jian^1,2,
XU WeiJin^1,2,
GAO MengTan^1,2
1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. China Earthquake Risk and Insurance Laboratory, Beijing 100081, China


MSC: P315

--> Received Date: 30 December 2016
Revised Date: 10 April 2018
Available Online: 05 June 2018


摘要
摘要:鄂尔多斯块体周缘历史上多次发生大地震，同时该地区人口稠密，城市群集中，有必要分析该地区未来30年的大地震危险性，为该地区的应急备灾工作提供参考.本文利用块体周缘活动断层的滑动速率、历史地震古地震等资料，建立了考虑大地震发生率的时间非平稳性质和大地震危险性近断层分布特征的地震危险性模型.计算了块体周缘未来30年Ⅷ度地震动的超越概率分布图，并同《中国地震动参数区划图》的地震危险性模型进行了比较.本文研究认为，由断层滑动速率估算的断层地震活动性与基于地震目录统计的地震活动性总体差别不大，但断层源的地震危险性在沿断层破裂面地区增大明显.结果认为，鄂尔多斯块体周缘未来30年地震危险性最高的地区在块体西南缘，六盘山东麓断裂和会宁—义岗断裂及周边地区是未来30年地震危险性较高的地区.
关键词: 鄂尔多斯块体/
断层源/
断层滑动速率/
特征地震

Abstract:Surrounding the Ordos block, major earthquakes occurred many times in the history. At the same time, this area is now densely populated with big cities concentrated. It is necessary to assess its seismic hazard in the next 30 years and provide a reference for emergency preparedness in the area. This paper uses the data of fault slip rates, and historic and paleoseismic earthquakes to build a seismic hazard model considering the time nonstationarity surrounding Ordos Block. The characteristics of seismic hazard along the fault rupture surface and the time-dependent seismicity is considered in this model. We calculate the distribution of the probability of exceedance of intensity Ⅷ in the next 30 years, and make a comparison with the results by the model of the China Seismic Zoning Map. This paper suggests that the seismicity calculated by fault slip rates is largely similar to that by earthquake catalogs, but the seismic hazard calculated by the fault source model is dramatically enhanced in near fault areas. This study concludes that the areas with the highest seismic hazard in the future 30 years surrounding the Ordos Block include the southwestern margin of the block. The Liupanshandonglu fautl and Huining-Yigang fault and adjacent areas are the places with high seismic risk in the next 30 years.
Key words:Ordos Block/
Fault source/
Fault slip rate/
Characteristic earthquake



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