于听雷^1,2,,
张学珍^1,2,
郑景云^1,2,,
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（批准号：2017YFA0603301）资助


详细信息

作者简介: 于听雷, 25岁, 男, 博士研究生, 主要从事气候变化研究, E-mail: yutl.18b@igsnrr.ac.cn

通讯作者: 郑景云, E-mail: zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn

中图分类号: P468

收稿日期:2020-11-09
修回日期:2021-01-15
刊出日期:2021-03-30

Data mining for climate change research in Central Asia over the past 2000 years

YU Tinglei^1,2,,
ZHANG Xuezhen^1,2,
ZHENG Jingyun^1,2,,
1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049


More Information

Corresponding author: ZHENG Jingyun,E-mail:zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn

MSC: P468

--> Received Date: 09 November 2020
Revised Date: 15 January 2021
Publish Date: 30 March 2021


摘要
摘要:中亚地区是古丝绸之路的主要廊道，气候变率时空差异大，随着"一带一路"倡议的逐步推进，该地区过去2000年气候变化研究备受关注。文章参照世界数据中心古气候资料共享网收录文献的关键词，从Web of Science数据库检索该地区过去2000年气候变化研究文献；并结合中亚自然资源图集的政区、湖泊、山脉等地名信息，构建了面向该类文献的数据挖掘技术；据此提取了研究区（点）、时间、代用资料与研究结果等信息，分析了其间该地区冷暖与干湿变化研究的主要进展。主要结论有：1）中亚地区过去2000年气候变化的已有研究重点为局地温度、降水/干湿变化重建与冷暖、干湿、湖泊水位等的阶段性差异分析，其中尤以干湿相关研究居多；所用代用资料主要有树轮（占44.2%）、湖泊沉积物（占41.9%）、冰芯（占9.3%）等，其中湖泊沉积物、冰芯、石笋可覆盖整个2000年，而最长的树轮仅覆盖过去1100年，且多数集中在1700年之后；研究区集中分布于西天山及帕米尔高原、巴尔喀什湖、咸海及周边地区；研究时段虽覆盖整个2000年，但高分辨率重建工作主要集中于16世纪之后。2）中亚地区公元1~3世纪末、15世纪中期~19世纪中期气候相对寒冷，5世纪中期~9世纪末、12世纪中期~14世纪末和19世纪中期以后气候总体温暖，但在1230年前后和1680年前后也分别出现过显著转冷和回暖；20世纪后期的温暖程度可能与其前千年的最暖时段相当。西天山、帕米尔和咸海三地干湿的百年尺度阶段变化并不同步；其中在百年以上尺度，咸海及周边地区公元1~5世纪、10~12世纪中期相对偏干，5世纪~9世纪、12世纪后期~15世纪中期相对偏湿，此后缓慢转干持续至今；而在年代际尺度上，西天山和帕米尔山地降水自1980年起曾显著增加，但至2000年以后又显著转干。
关键词: 中亚/
过去2000年/
气候变化/
数据挖掘/
研究进展

Abstract:Central Asia(CA) is the main corridor of ancient Silk Road and is characterized by high climate variability. With the gradual promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, climate change for this region over the past 2000 years is being a hot topic. A lot of climate change reconstructions based on individual site proxy data have been achieved; however, integrated understanding based on these existing reconstructions remains unclear. Thereby, to depict the main characters of regional climate changes, this study herein collected the existing papers on climate changes for CA over the past 2000 years and carried out data mining on these papers.
Firstly, we prepared a keyword list based on the keywords from papers on paleoclimate reconstruction collected by the World Data Service for Paleoclimatology. Using this keyword list, we retrieved 807 papers on climate changes for CA over the past 2000 years from the Web of Science Database. Through data cleaning, 46 papers on climate change reconstructions were kept.
Secondly, based on the place names list for the administrative regions, lakes, and mountains from the Central Asia Natural Resources Atlas as well as key words for proxy data, temporal resolution, and meteorology factors from experiences, the dictionary-based data mining technology was developed. Using the data mining technology, we extracted primary information including research area(site), time, proxy data and research results. Finally, the general characters of regional temperature and precipitation/dry-wet changes over the last 2000 years were depicted.
The main conclusions are: (1) Existing studies mainly focused on the reconstructions of local temperature and precipitation/dry-wet changes as well as qualitative analysis on phases changes in cold-warm, dry-wet, lake level, etc. Among them, studies relevant to dry-wet changes were the majority. Proxy data used by the existing studies included tree rings(accounting for 44.2%), lake sediments(41.9%), ice core(9.3%), etc. The reconstructions using lake sediments, ice core or stalagmite can cover past 2000 years, while reconstructions using tree rings can only cover last 1100-year and, particularly, most of them started later than 1700 A.D. Most of reconstructions set targets on western Tianshan, the Pamir Plateau, Lake Balkhash and the Aral Sea Region and most of high-resolution reconstructions started after the 16^th century. (2) It was cold in the 1^st to late-3^rd century and mid-15^th to mid-19^th century, and warm in the mid-5^th to late 9^th century, mid-12^th to late 14^th century, and after mid-19^th century in the CA. Meanwhile, there had also been cooling period around 1230 and warming period around 1680. The climate in late 20^th century may be comparable with that in the warmest period in the past millennium. The dry-wet changes in the Western Tianshan, Pamir Region and the Aral Sea were not keeping same phases with each other. Around the Aral Sea, it was dry in the 1^st~5^th century and 10^th to mid-12^th century, and wet in the 5^th~9^th century and late-12^th to mid-15^th century followed by a drying trend to present on century scale. In the western Tianshan and Pamir-Alay, precipitation significantly increased since 1980 but significantly decreased after 2000 on decadal scale.
Key words:Central Asia/
past 2000 years/
climate change/
data mining/
research progress



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