摘要:针对京津冀高温模拟，综合运用卫星和地面气象观测数据、参数敏感性试验等技术方法，确定了耦合了多层城市冠层模型的中尺度数值模式（WRF/BEP/BEM）的地表反照率、比辐射率和人为热等参数的本地化配置。数值对比试验表明，参照试验中优化地表反照率、比辐射率和人为热（通过本地优化BEM输入参数来实现）等参数后，模式对京津冀高温模拟的效果均有显著提高，65%及以上的城市站点，参照试验比敏感性试验模拟误差降低0.5℃以上。经参数优化的WRF/BEP/BEM，较好地模拟了2010年以来京津冀地区5次极端高温过程，模拟结果与观测的标准差分别为1.4°C、0.8°C、0.9°C、1.0°C和0.7°C，分别较ERA5与观测的标准差减小26.3%、61.9%、40.0%、41.2%和36.3%。参数本地优化的WRF/BEP/BEM，可进一步应用于京津冀极端高温的相关研究，特别是城市化对极端高温作用机理的研究。
关键词:多层城市冠层模型/
参数优化/
京津冀/
极端高温
Abstract:Numerical simulation is an effective method to study the urban climate effect, and the parameters are very important for simulation. Using satellite and surface meteorological observations, parameter sensitivity tests of the simulation of extremely high temperatures in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration are conducted, and localized parameter configurations such as surface albedo, surface emissivity, and anthropogenic heat for the model (WRF/BEP/BEM) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration are determined. It is shown that the locally optimized surface albedo, surface emissivity, and anthropogenic heat have a significant effect on the simulation results of extremely high temperatures in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei. By localizing these parameters, surface maximum temperature simulation errors are reduced by more than 0.5°C in more than 65% of urban sites. Since 2010, five extreme high-temperature processes have been successfully simulated in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region with the optimized WRF/BEP/BEM. Standard deviations of the extremely high temperature simulated in the model from the observation are about 1.4°C, 0.8°C, 0.9°C, 1.0°C, and 0.7°C, which are decreased by 26.3%, 61.9%, 40.0%, 41.2%, and 36.3%, respectively, compared with the standard deviations of ERA5. After optimization, the model simulation error is obviously reduced, and it can be further applied to the study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urbanization mechanism under extremely high temperatures.
Key words:Multilayer urban canopy model/
Parameter optimization/
Beijing?Tianjin?Hebei/
Extreme high temperature
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